STOCK MARKET TALKING POINTS:

• The Dow Jones will look to trade and unemployment data for trend continuation purposes
• Germany’s DAX 30 awaits a rate decision from the ECB on Wednesday
• Australia’s central bank is also slated for a rate decision, a key event for the ASX 200

DOW JONES FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK

Forecast: Mixed

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week lower for the first time in 9 weeks on Friday. The streak of higher weekly closes was the longest for the Dow since 1995. Still, the index trades slightly below key technical resistance and data in the week ahead may dictate price action moving forward.

DOW JONES PRICE CHART: 4 - HOUR TIME FRAME (OCTOBER 2018 – MARCH 2019) (CHART 1)

On Monday, US trade data is due and will be the first important print for the index next week. A strong performance could surprise markets and suggest the current US-China trade war is making headway in reducing the country’s trade deficit.

Later in the week, the Fed’s Beige Book is due on Wednesday and unemployment figures are scheduled to be released on Friday. Unemployment has been a key tailwind in sentiment indicators and an important component of the recent strength displayed by the Dow Jones and S&P 500.

DAX 30 LOOKS TO THE ECB

Forecast: Mixed

Germany’s DAX 30 will look to a rate decision from the European Central Bank. While no change in rates is expected, language and tone will be critical in gauging the bank’s outlook for future rate movements. Any hawkish intentions, though highly unlikely, could spell disaster for the German equity index as it mounts a rebound in the new year.

Similarly, trade wars will remain a key factor for the DAX. US President Trump has not announced any progress in his consideration of auto tariffs on the European Union, but the uncertainty will remain a headwind.

DAX 30 PRICE CHART: DAILY TIMEFRAME (FEBRUARY 2018 – MARCH 2019) (CHART 2)

AUSTRALIA’S ASX 200 EYES THE RBA

Forecast: Bearish

Like the DAX, the Australian ASX 200 will eye its own central bank. While no change is expected out of the RBA, language and tone again remain key for the Australian index.Strong Australian employment data but weak Chinese data paint a mixed picture for the ASX, but the RBA could look to clarify their intentions and provide stability for the index.

ASX 200 PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (SEPTEMBER 2018 – MARCH 2019) (CHART 3)