Currency Speculators Add To EuroFX Bullish Bets As EURUSD Trades At 1.0900

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (7,365 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (1,805 contracts), Japanese Yen (1,326 contracts), British Pound (763 contracts), Brazilian Real (592 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (449 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-3,884 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,453 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,567 contracts), Bitcoin (-810 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-101 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the strength of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro. Large speculative positions rose this week by over +7,300 contracts and have risen in four out of the past six weeks. Euro weekly positions have now also been higher in sixteen out of the past twenty-one weeks, going from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to this week’s total net position of +134,349 contracts.

The Euro speculator positions have now been above +100,000 contracts for the past thirteen consecutive weeks which is the best streak since early in 2021. The Euro strength index, a measure of positions compared to the past three year’s range, has now moved up to a level of 76 percent strength of last three years.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar hit it’s highest level this week since April above the 1.0900 exchange level. Since October, the Euro has now had higher weekly closes in eleven out of the past fifteen weeks and looks to soon make a run at the psychological 1.1000 level.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-24-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
EUR 777,569 100 134,349 76 -186,450 23 52,101 62
MXN 272,655 83 -48,740 7 42,327 90 6,413 95
GBP 194,051 33 -23,934 48 27,654 53 -3,720 51
JPY 173,321 34 -21,635 56 17,145 44 4,490 63
CAD 137,476 22 -30,712 5 29,159 93 1,553 33
AUD 129,490 29 -33,171 54 29,706 41 3,465 61
BRL 45,128 34 22,785 70 -23,618 30 833 71
USD Index 41,233 48 15,163 50 -17,909 47 2,746 47
CHF 35,368 20 -9,508 29 11,565 64 -2,057 51
NZD 32,710 12 2,174 60 -4,241 36 2,067 75
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
Bitcoin 17,390 93 -1,437 52 912 0 525 25

 


Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (60 percent), Japanese Yen (56 percent) and the Australian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (5 percent) and the Mexican Peso (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (29 percent) and the British Pound (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (50.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (47.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (55.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (54.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (54.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (70.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.7 percent)
Bitcoin (51.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.0 percent)

 

New Zealand Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) and the Brazilian Real (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (19 percent), the Swiss Franc (6 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-24 percent), the US Dollar Index (-18 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-17.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-19.2 percent)
EuroFX (3.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-40.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-42.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-12.1 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.7 2.4 13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 45.8 7.0
– Net Position: 15,163 -17,909 2,746
– Gross Longs: 33,291 981 5,614
– Gross Shorts: 18,128 18,890 2,868
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.2 47.3 46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.7 16.8 0.5

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 134,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 55.2 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 79.2 5.7
– Net Position: 134,349 -186,450 52,101
– Gross Longs: 237,743 429,253 96,793
– Gross Shorts: 103,394 615,703 44,692
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.2 23.1 62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.0 -8.2 31.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.9 65.6 13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.2 51.3 15.5
– Net Position: -23,934 27,654 -3,720
– Gross Longs: 34,756 127,207 26,309
– Gross Shorts: 58,690 99,553 30,029
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.5 52.9 50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -2.5 3.6

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.9 65.4 17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.4 55.6 15.3
– Net Position: -21,635 17,145 4,490
– Gross Longs: 27,620 113,437 31,009
– Gross Shorts: 49,255 96,292 26,519
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 44.0 62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.4 -20.4 21.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.2 57.1 32.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 24.4 38.4
– Net Position: -9,508 11,565 -2,057
– Gross Longs: 3,624 20,185 11,540
– Gross Shorts: 13,132 8,620 13,597
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.5 64.1 50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.1 -7.3 7.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -30,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.9 56.4 22.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.2 35.2 21.4
– Net Position: -30,712 29,159 1,553
– Gross Longs: 25,978 77,571 30,927
– Gross Shorts: 56,690 48,412 29,374
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.2 93.0 33.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 3.5 -1.6

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.8 57.8 17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.4 34.8 15.0
– Net Position: -33,171 29,706 3,465
– Gross Longs: 29,466 74,818 22,903
– Gross Shorts: 62,637 45,112 19,438
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.1 41.0 60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.3 -9.8 20.7

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,058 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.1 50.9 15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 63.9 9.2
– Net Position: 2,174 -4,241 2,067
– Gross Longs: 10,170 16,662 5,077
– Gross Shorts: 7,996 20,903 3,010
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.0 36.5 75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 25.9 -24.4 7.6

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.4 42.2 3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 72.3 26.7 0.8
– Net Position: -48,740 42,327 6,413
– Gross Longs: 148,265 115,053 8,628
– Gross Shorts: 197,005 72,726 2,215
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.7 90.3 95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -40.6 39.2 5.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.1 13.0 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 65.3 6.1
– Net Position: 22,785 -23,618 833
– Gross Longs: 35,691 5,847 3,585
– Gross Shorts: 12,906 29,465 2,752
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.3 30.3 71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.7 -18.9 -14.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 75.0 7.8 8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 83.2 2.6 5.4
– Net Position: -1,437 912 525
– Gross Longs: 13,036 1,365 1,467
– Gross Shorts: 14,473 453 942
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 3.0 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 100.0 24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.4 59.0 1.7

 


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


More By This Author:

Currency Speculators Retreat From US Dollar Index Bullish Bets To A 78-Week Low
COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, Ultra 10-Year Treasuries Lead Bullish & Bearish Positions
Bonds Speculators Increased 10-Year Treasury Bearish Bets To 222-Week High

Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.