Having spiked over 5% on hopes of a "significant" announcement at a joint Russia-Saudi statement at the G-20 meeting, bulls were quickly disappointed, sending WTI back to a $44 handle as the two nations stopped short of taking any concrete steps to limit output.

• *PUTIN: OIL PRICE IN GENERAL IS SATISFACTORY

The inability to hold these gains on an illiquid day (with a US holiday) confirms the short-squeeze ammo is out. Furthermore 'longs' are losing faith as leveraged speculative positioning plunged by the most in over 2 years last week.

With that hope blown out of the water, we suspect 2015's analog will continue as the glut remains bigger than ever and positioning technicals now worn out...

Charts: Bloomberg