• Key economic data and earnings from China may drive CHINAH
• CHINAH index has slumped since its year-to-date high
• Alibaba earnings could impact both its shares and CHINAH
• JD.com earnings may shift focus on margins over market share
• Economists predict a better showing for July's economic data

The CHINAH index could be in for a thrilling Thursday! Markets are set to receive key economic data out of China, along with earnings from two Chinese e-commerce giants. 

This could lead to outsized trading opportunities, not just for CHINAH, but also the US-listed shares of Alibaba and JD.com.

Since posting its year-to-date high around the 7k level some 12 weeks ago, CHINAH has slumped alongside the broader Chinese stock market, amid growing concerns surrounding the world’s second-largest economy.

CHINAH bulls will be hoping that the incoming economic data and earnings out of 19 of the index’s 50 members this week can spark a long-awaited turnaround.
 

Events Watchlist:

• Thursday, August 15th: China medium-term lending facility rate; July industrial production, retail sales, jobless rate, home prices, property investment and sales

Economists predict a better month-on-month (July 2024 vs. June 2024) showing for the incoming data load, which hopefully points to a more stable footing for the Chinese economy.

Better-than-expected data could build on the CHINAH index’s year-to-date gains, which now stand at over 4%.

Bulls will hope the index can this week take these first steps towards fulfilling its forecasted 33% climb over the next 12 months, and cross above the 8,000 level by then.

• Thursday, August 15th: Alibaba earnings (before US markets open)

Alibaba alone accounts for about 8.7% of CHINAH - the biggest stock within the index.

Alibaba’s US-listed shares are forecasted to move 5.11%, either up or down, when US markets open on Thursday, shortly after the earnings are released.

Stronger-than-expected results in its quest to gain larger market share, both within and beyond China, along with its cloud services unit, may push both Alibaba’s stocks and CHINAH higher in tandem.

• Thursday, August 15th: JD.com earnings (before US markets open)

JD.com is the 12th-largest member of the CHINAH index’s 50 constituents. JD.com’s US-listed shares are forecasted to move 6.08% up/down when US markets reopen Thursday, just hours after its earnings are announced.

With the company apparently willing to sacrifice market share for profitability, more focus will likely fall on its margins, rather than future spending plans, amid an ongoing price war with its competitors.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due next week:

Tuesday, August 13

• JPY: Japan July PPI
• AUD: Australia August consumer and business confidence
• GBP: UK June unemployment, July jobless claims
• GER40 index: Germany August ZEW survey expectations
• ZAR: South Africa 2Q unemployment
• USD index: US July PPI; speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
• US30 index: Home Depot earnings

Wednesday, August 14

• NZD: RBNZ rate decision
• UK100 index: UK July CPI
• EU50 index: Eurozone 2Q GDP, June industrial production
• ZAR: South Africa June retail sales
• US500 index: US July CPI

Thursday, August 15

• JP225 index: Japan 2Q GDP
• AU2000 index: Australia July unemployment
• CNH: China July home prices, industrial production, retail sales, jobless rate
• GBP: UK 2Q GDP; June industrial production, trade balance
• NOK: Norway rate decision
• RUS2000 index: US weekly initial jobless claims; July retail sales and industrial production
• US30 index: Walmart earnings; speeches by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Philadelphia Fed
  President Patrick Harker
• CHINAH index: Earnings from Alibaba, JD.com

Friday, August 16

• SG20 index: Singapore July exports
• GBP: UK July retail sales
• TWN index: Taiwan 2Q GDP
• US400 index: US August consumer sentiment; speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

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