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We kickoff the day with Durable Goods Orders MoM, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM, and Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air at 7:30 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.

Latest news on Canadian Rail Strike
 

A decision obliging more than 9,000 Canadian rail workers to stay on the job is a win for the railways and could impact bargaining in other federally regulated sectors like aviation, the head of a Canadian rail workers’ union told Reuters. Paul Boucher, president of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, also said the union would work with other labour groups as it mounts a legal challenge to a Saturday decision that halted work stoppages at the country’s two largest railways and imposed arbitration. Boucher also said, “ The Canadian rail decision is a win for companies.” In summary: * Union to mount legal challenge against the decision,* Air Canada pilots concerned how the ruling will affect their talks,* Both railways say they would have preferred a negotiated settlement,* CN & CP railways are focusing on restoring service.

The Census Bureau reported that new home sales in July jumped 10.6% from June and were 5.6% larger than a year ago at 739,000 homes. This marked the 2^nd consecutive month higher and the 2^nd month of year-over-year gains. It was also the highest monthly new home sales figures since May 2023 and the second highest since February 2022. On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose 1% from June but were still 2% less than a year ago at 3.95 Mil homes. This marked the 36^th straight month of year-over-year declines. Total home sales of 4.689 Mil homes were up 3% for the month and 1% less than a year ago, but it’s under the covid low, and just above the 12-year low that was set in late 2023.

ARC Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
 

Central US Forecast Drier into Sep 6; Spotty Showers Impacts Dakotas, MN,WI; Heat Incoming:

The Central US forecast maintains a pattern of net soil loss across the Plains, Delta and S Midwest into Sep 6^th . Moderate showers of .25-1.00” are forecast across the NW Midwest next Thurs-Sat, but confidence is low with respect to coverage. ND, MN, and WI are favored. ARC notes that model guidance features an uptick in tropical activity after Sep 4^th, but US landfall remains unlikely. Finishing conditions are the concern. Following a rather mild August, heat pulses across the Central US Sat-Tues. Temps peak on Monday, when highs in the mid/upper 90’s stretch from the Southern Plains, into IA, IL, and KY. Sep climate guidance remains warm/dry. This pattern is probable without the arrival of Gulf tropical storms.

CBOT futures are lower with corn and wheat futures scoring new contract lows. Pro Farmer’s US corn yield estimate of 181.1 BPA provided only temporary support, while its US soybean yield forecast of 55 BPA was deemed to be outright bearish. September First Notice Day deliveries and the end of the month looms Friday.  There are 424 contracts of Chicago wheat, 15 contracts of corn, and 10 contracts of soybeans are registered for delivery In the products, no soybean meal and 415 soybean oil are registered. Wheat and soybean oil receipts have been in decline since July.

CBOT open interest fell 23,766 contracts in corn, 1,637 contracts in soybeans, and 10,105 contracts in Chicago wheat following option expiration last Friday. Soybean oil open interest was down 6,827 contracts, while soybean meal was off 639 contracts. Liquidation persisted on Friday.

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