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• AUD/USD started the week on the right foot on a quiet Monday.
• Australia will release Q2 GDP data on Wednesday, which will be key.
• RBA Governor Bullock is expected to reiterate hawkish guidance on Thursday despite market expectations of a rate cut in December.

The AUD/USD gained 0.30% in Monday's session, advancing to 0.6790. The pair is trading slightly higher on a quiet Monday as markets look ahead to key US labor market data this week, culminating in the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. On the domestic front, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Bullock's speech on Thursday are the key events to watch.

The Australian economic outlook remains uncertain, with both positive and negative indicators. The RBA has taken a hawkish stance due to elevated inflation, leading financial markets to anticipate only a modest 25 basis points of easing in interest rates by 2024.

Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar gains amid quiet trading, anticipation of key data
 

• Australia's Q2 GDP data will be released on Wednesday, with expectations of a 0.2% QoQ growth (vs. 0.1% in Q1) and a 0.9% YoY rate (vs. 1.1% in Q1).
• However, recent data on retail sales and private capital expenditure suggest downside risks to the GDP forecast.
• RBA Governor Bullock will speak on Thursday, likely reiterating the RBA's hawkish stance. Markets will look for clues on whether the bank is open to cutting or not this year.
• Despite the RBA's hawkish guidance, market expectations point to an 80% chance of a rate cut in December, reflecting concerns about slower economic growth.

AUD/USD technical outlook: Momentum flattens despite gains
 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose back to 64 as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is green and flat, suggesting that the momentum is strong. The pair is approaching a resistance level at 0.6800, and if it breaks above this level, it could continue to rise toward 0.6830-0.6850. Support levels can be found at 0.6760 and 0.6740.

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