Ups and downs of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair had a bearish week, and the Australian and US dollars struggled. At the start of the week, Australia released inflation data, which showed cooler-than-expected underlying price pressures. As a result, markets increased the likelihood of an RBA rate cut in November.

Soon after, US data showed a faster-than-expected slowdown in the economy. Business activity in the manufacturing sector plunged to an 8-month low. Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls missed forecasts, and unemployment jumped to 4.3%. 

However, the dollar barely fell due to safe-haven demand. Notably, during the week, investors bought dollars amid fears of an escalation in the Middle East war.

Next week’s key events for AUD/USD

Next week, investors will focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Australia’s central bank will likely keep rates unchanged at the meeting. However, the focus will be on the messaging after the meeting. 

For a long time, markets have been pushing back bets on RBA rate cuts, expecting the first in mid-2025. However, this outlook recently changed after Australia’s inflation report. Notably, underlying inflation unexpectedly cooled in the second quarter, raising expectations for a rate cut this year. Investors are now expecting the first cut in November. 

If policymakers assume a slightly more dovish tone, the Aussie might fall. On the other hand, they might maintain caution, boosting the Australian dollar.

AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears charge towards 0.6401 support

On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has steeply declined from the 0.6801 key level. It has fallen well below the 22-SMA, with the RSI in the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. The decline paused briefly when it reached the 0.618 Fib retracement level. However, bears soon broke below with a solid candle. 

In the coming week, the bearish trend might continue past the 0.786 Fib to retest the 0.6401 support level. Here, the downtrend might pause and pull back to retest the 22-SMA resistance. Nevertheless, the bearish bias will remain if the price stays below the SMA and the RSI below 50.

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