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• AUD/USD failed to move too far in either direction on Wednesday.
• Australian Trade Balance figures are due early Thursday.
• US government shutdown has crimped the flow of critical inflation and jobs data.

AUD/USD took a breather on Wednesday, churning in place near 0.6620 after a three-day gain streak that saw the US Dollar (USD) rebound from a three-week low of 0.6520 against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The US government has entered it’s fourth federal shutdown during Donald Trump’s two terms as president, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has warned that it will not be able to deliver the latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs data amid a federal shuttering.

Australia’s Trade Balance is expected to have dipped to 6.5 billion in August. Imports declined 1.3% in July, alongside a 3.3% uptick in Exports during the same period, bringing Australia’s July Trade Balance to 7.31 billion MoM. Australian Trade Balance data drops at 01:30 GMT. Australian S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will also land on late on Thursday at 23:00 GMT. Australian Services PMIs are expected to hold steady at 52.0 for September.
 

This week’s hotly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs report is at risk of being delayed or suspended. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a government shutdown will result in official dataset releases being suspended until federal operations resume.

ADP Employment Change figures came in much lower than the street expected, showing a contraction of -32K in September versus the expected 50K. August’s initial print of 54K was also revised sharply lower to -3K. ADP jobs figures suffer from constant revisions, but the figure has generally missed expectations for all but three of the monthly figures published since the start of 2025.

With the NFP print in jeopardy, investors are leaning further on private data such as ADP. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate trader bets of another quarter-point interest rate cut on October 29 surged to 99% post-ADP on Wednesday. Rate markets are also pricing in nearly 90% odds of a third-straight rate trim on December 10, and a further 93% that the Fed will deliver a fourth interest rate cut by next April at the absolute latest.

AUD/USD daily chart
 

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