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The AUD/USD pair is struggling near the 0.6400 level as trade policy uncertainty continues to impact sentiment. Investors are awaiting critical data this week, including the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and GDP figures, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on interest rates. The trade war and concerns over inflation remain key factors driving market uncertainty.

Daily digest market movers: US data, tariffs weigh on sentiment

• The AUD/USD pair slips after testing resistance near 0.6450, as uncertainty around US trade policy impacts risk sentiment.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on trade policy delays added to market unease.
• President Trump’s plans to ease tariffs on auto imports failed to spark significant market movement.
• The JOLTS report showed softening labor demand, with job openings falling to 7.19 million, missing expectations.
• US consumer confidence continued to slide, with the Conference Board’s Index falling to its lowest since 2020.
• Expectations for a Fed rate cut in June rise after softening labor and confidence data.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains near 99.16, up slightly on the day, amid cautious optimism for a trade thaw.
• Market mood remains cautiously positive as US equities show slight gains despite tariff-related uncertainties.
• Traders are focused on the upcoming US GDP report, with the market expecting weak growth due to trade friction.
• In Australia, CPI data for Q1 is due this week, with expectations for cooling inflation.
• US trade data, including the Goods Trade Balance, remains in focus amid trade negotiations with China and other partners.
• President Trump’s tariff policies continue to weigh on the US Dollar as the global trade landscape remains uncertain.
   

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6450, bullish trend intact

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6400, down 0.65% on the day. Price action remains range-bound between 0.6376 and 0.6450. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 55.98, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to generate a buy signal. However, short-term momentum is bearish, with the 10-day momentum at 0.0043. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral at 69.64. Short-term moving averages are bullish, with the 10-day EMA at 0.6373 and the 100-day SMA at 0.6282, supporting the overall bullish outlook. Resistance is found at 0.6450, and the 200-day SMA at 0.6464 remains a key hurdle. Support levels are identified at 0.6373, 0.6336, and 0.6336, with the pair likely to continue testing resistance.

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