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• The Aussie continues a three-day losing streak, awaiting monthly CPI data.
• Tariff anxieties persist as President Trump threatens new duties on Canadian and Mexican goods.
• RBA’s cautious approach to policy cuts leads traders to question near-term easing prospects.
• Investors brace for US PCE data, which is crucial for Federal Reserve rate guidance.

AUD/USD slides to near 0.6330 before the Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for January are released. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10% last week, but persistent inflation concerns loom. Meanwhile, renewed fears of additional United States (US) tariffs by President Donald Trump underpin the US Dollar (USD), limiting the Aussie’s upside.

Daily digest market movers: Aussie under scrutiny amid rate caution and tariff jitters
 

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens for the third consecutive day, weighed by tariff anxieties and approaching inflation data that may influence RBA policy actions.
• The Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to show inflation rose from 2.5% in December to 2.6% in January, potentially reducing the likelihood of further immediate interest-rate cuts.
• The RBA signaled a measured approach after trimming the cash rate to 4.10%, warning that high inflation remains a threat and that the bank’s fight against rising prices is far from over.
• The US Dollar (USD) remains steady after Monday’s gains, with President Trump warning that 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports could still proceed despite earlier signs of delay.
• Markets also focus on upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data on Friday, which will clarify the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate strategy.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed tariffs as a revenue measure for the Trump administration, whereas Trade Advisor Peter Navarro hinted at selective exemptions, revealing internal policy inconsistencies.

AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls lose momentum near 100-day SMA, pair stays above 20-day SMA
 

The AUD/USD pair declines moderately on Tuesday, while the 100-day Simple Moving Average continues to limit any upside push. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in an elevated zone, it appears to be flattening out, implying that the bullish impetus may be diminishing. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram features flat green bars, suggesting reduced upward momentum. Although the Aussie remains above its 20-day Simple Moving Average, the inability to maintain gains past the 100-day SMA does not indicate a structural change; the pair could either trade lower or consolidate between these two moving averages, contingent on near-term data and shifts in trade sentiment.

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