The RBA rate decision was a quiet event, as the bank held the cash rate at 0.25%. In its financial stability review, the bank warned of weakening conditions in commercial property markets, which has exposed banks to higher risk. The Melbourne Institute rebounded in March with a gain of 0.2%, up from -0.1% a month earlier.

In the U.S., unemployment claims hit a shocking level for a second straight week, hitting 6.60 million. This was higher than the estimate of 5.0 million. The week ended on a sour note, as consumer inflation declined by 0.4% in March, the first decline since December 2018. Core CPI fell by 0.1%, after a gain of 0.2% a month earlier.

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. 

1. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. Business confidence fell to -4 points in February, its lowest level since December 2012. Will we see another reading in negative territory?
2. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 0:30. Consumer confidence has been sputtering, with three declines in the past four months. The indicator declined by 3.8% in March, as consumers are jittery about current economic conditions. We now await the upcoming release.
3. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. Inflation expectations are carefully monitored, as they are a useful gauge of actual inflation levels. The indicator has been steady, with four readings of 4.0% in the past five months. The March release is next.
4. Employment Data: Thursday, 1:30. The economy has registered four successive gains, including a reading of 26.7 thousand in February. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.1% in February, down from 5.3%. Analysts are projecting that unemployment will jump to 5.4% in March.
5. Chinese GDP: Friday, 2:00. China’s economy posted a second straight gain of 6.0% in Q4. Investors are expecting a disastrous first quarter due to the CORVID-19 outbreak, with a forecast of -6.0%.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

• With AUD/USD posting sharp gains last week, we start at higher levels:
• 0.6627 has held in resistance since early March. 0.6560 is next.
• 0.6456 is providing support.
• 0.6380 is an immediate resistance level.
• 0.6240 is providing support.
• 0.6150 has some breathing room in support after sharp gains by AUD/USD last week.
• The round number of 0.6000, which has psychological significance, is the final support level for now.

I remain bearish on AUD/USD

With the COVID-19 crisis still in full gear, financial markets remain volatile. Minor currencies such as the Aussie are likely to remain under pressure.