Asia Week Ahead: US-China Trade Talks And Key Data From Japan, South Korea, Taiwan

By Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang of Think.ING

Friday, July 25, 2025 10:00 AM EDT

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US-China trade talks will be the main event of the week, along with China’s July purchasing managers’ index. Other key data reports are expected from South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. The Bank of Japan is seen leaving rates unchanged.

China: Whether the US-China tariff ceasefire can be extended is crucial

The main event of the week is US-China trade talks in Sweden. Tariffs were drastically cut in a 90-day ceasefire agreement that was effective in May. This is set to expire 12 August. One big question for markets is whether the tariff ceasefire is extended. We expect that an agreement will be attainable, but, in the interim, markets will watch closely to see if there are adjustments to current tariff rates in either direction.

In terms of data, the official July PMI will be in focus, set for release on Thursday. We expect the manufacturing PMI will remain in contraction at 49.6. The S&P's PMI (formerly sponsored by Caixin), out Friday, is more focused on private and export-oriented firms. Additionally, China's June industrial profits data is scheduled for release over the weekend. A rather steep drop in May sent the year-to-date profit growth negative. Markets are keen to see if there’s a rebound following the de-escalation in trade-war tensions or if the downward pressure remains.

South Korea: Front-loading expected to boost exports

South Korea will release data on June industrial production and July exports. Given the stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP outcome, we believe manufacturing industrial production (IP), out Thursday, will rebound quite significantly. However, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index might soften a bit further amid growing concerns over US trade policy. The real highlight is Friday’s data on July exports. We're expecting a 4.4% year-on-year gain, driven by semiconductors, vessels, mobile phones, and cars. The launch of new mobile phone products and front-loading of car exports should provide a temporary boost to overall exports.

Japan: BOJ likely to take no policy action

Markets widely expect no policy action at the Bank of Japan’s 30-31 July meeting. Yet markets will closely monitor the BoJ's quarterly macro outlook. Given the US-Japan trade deal struck this week, a big uncertainty factor has been removed. This could offer some relief for the BoJ. Also, possible upward revisions of inflation forecasts should offer markets hints about the near-term rate outlook. Meanwhile, weak June IP data will weigh on overall growth, but could be partially offset by a rebound of retail sales.

Taiwan: GDP growth expected to accelerate

Taiwan's second-quarter GDP release will be in focus next week. Given the continued outperformance of monthly data and inflation pressures cooling faster than expected, we’re looking for real GDP growth of around 4.6% YoY, or faster, in 2Q.

Key events in Asia next week

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Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...

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