Asia Week Ahead: Tokyo Inflation And Retail Sales From Japan, And Industrial Data From China And Taiwan

By Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang of Think.ING

Saturday, June 21, 2025 4:30 AM EDT

Japan releases key economic indicators, including Tokyo inflation, the unemployment rate, retail sales, and flash purchasing managers’ indexes. Additionally, China will publish industrial profits figures, while Taiwan releases industrial production data.

brown and black printed textile

Image Source: Unsplash

Japan: Slight moderation of inflation expected

Tokyo inflation is the highlight of the week, while other data should suggest a modest recovery in Japan’s economy in the second quarter.

We expect the inflation rate to moderate slightly to 3.3% year on year in June from 3.4% in May, though it will remain at an elevated level. The government's release of stockpiled rice should help lower prices. However, it's important to note that other services prices, including rent, are likely to continue growing at a steady pace.

Labour market conditions are likely to remain tight, with the unemployment rate staying at 2.5% in May. Retail sales are expected to rise quite meaningfully, thanks to government subsidies and cash handouts. We believe that flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) should show modest improvement in service PMI amid strong wage growth and government support. However, the manufacturing PMI is likely to decline further as uncertainty surrounding US tariffs grows.

China: Industrial profits data under the tariff impact

With the key monthly data behind us, the upcoming week will be quiet in terms of China data releases. May industrial profits data is set to be released on Friday. We will see if tariff impacts will drive profit growth back toward negative levels after two months of positive year-on-year growth in March and April.

Taiwan: Steady industrial production likely to continue

Next week’s data will feature May industrial production, set for release on Tuesday. We expect YoY growth to cool a little after last month’s surprise acceleration to 22.3% YoY, but for growth to continue at a very respectable 16.3% YoY. The information and electronics industry, led by semiconductor production, has been a main driver of industrial production in recent months. This trend is expected to continue.

Key events in Asia next week

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Refinitiv, ING

More By This Author:

Fed Chair Powell On The Defence
French Economy Remains Gloomy As Business Sentiment Stays Subdued
Rates Spark: Central Banks Are Just As Wise As The Rest

Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...

Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.

The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.

Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved. ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by ING Bank N.V., London Branch. ING Bank N.V., London Branch is deemed authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The nature and extent of consumer protections may differ from those for firms based in the UK. Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period while seeking full authorisation, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website.. ING Bank N.V., London branch is registered in England (Registration number BR000341) at 8-10 Moorgate, London EC2 6DA. For US Investors: Any person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact ING Financial Markets LLC, which is a member of the NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and part of ING, and which has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.

less

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.