Asia Week Ahead: Major China Data Release And India’s Inflation Report
Next week is rather quiet, with only a few countries in the region releasing major data reports. China will be in the spotlight with several data releases, followed by India’s inflation number, Australia’s employment survey and Indonesia’s trade data.
China data dump: M2, industrial production, retail sales, aggregate financing
China will release a huge batch of data next week, the highlights of which will be industrial production and retail sales figures for August. Taking cues from the PMIs released recently, we could see a moderate improvement in industrial production at 4.8% year-on-year (from 3.7% in July). For retail sales, as it is approaching the end of the summer holiday season, we could see slower growth of 2.8% (from 2.5% in July).
India: CPI inflation
India’s inflation is likely to come down as prices of tomatoes have fallen by more than 50% month-on-month. However, the price of another crucial food staple – onions – shot up by more than 20% MoM. The net result of this is that the CPI inflation rate for August should slow to 6.7% year-on-year (from 7.44% in July) – still above the top of the RBI’s upper inflation target.
Australia: employment change, unemployment rate
Australia will release its labour report for August next week. We expect a partial reversal of the full-time job losses recorded last month, and some decline in the part-time jobs reading, resulting in a 15K increase in total employment. A similar partial reversal of last month’s unemployment surge, coupled with ongoing increases in the labour force, could see the unemployment rate dip back down to 3.6% after last month’s 3.7% print.
Indonesia: trade data
Exports and imports will remain in contraction for Indonesia while the overall trade surplus should improve slightly for August. Exports could fall by 17.3%YoY while imports could fall by 12.8%YoY. Resurgent global energy prices could impact both exports and imports with the overall trade balance registering at $3.6bn. The trade balance could provide some support for the Indonesian rupiah which has been under pressure of late.
Key events next week
(Click on image to enlarge)
Refinitiv, ING
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Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...
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