Asia Week Ahead: Key Data On China, Japan, South Korea And Taiwan

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China will release its August manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, while South Korea is expected to report that exports remain solid. Other key data includes Taiwan inflation and Japan household spending, and labor cash earnings.
China: Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly
China releases its August purchasing managers’ data over the weekend. We are expecting the manufacturing PMI to show a slight uptick to 49.5 from 49.3 in July. The newly renamed RatingDog China PMI (formerly Caixin PMI) data from S&P follows with releases on the coming Monday and Wednesday. Data aside, China's military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II is set for Wednesday. Market participants may be closely monitoring attendees on hand and any new military tech on display.
South Korea: Exports expected to be solid as inflation cools
Exports are expected to grow a mere 0.6% year on year in August, mostly due to unfavourable calendar day effects. Daily average exports are expected to be solidly above 5%. Chips and auto shipments should rise, but exports to the US and China may remain weak due to tariffs. Meanwhile, imports are expected to fall 2.0% as global commodity prices declined. Meanwhile, consumer price index inflation is likely to ease marginally to 2.0% YoY in August from 2.2% in July, thanks to the high base last year. We believe that subway fees and fresh food prices rose, while energy declined. The manufacturing PMI is expected to improve as uncertainty related to US tariffs subsides.
Taiwan: Inflation may continue to cool down
The main data release next week is inflation, scheduled for release on Friday. Inflation has been under control since May, and could cool a bit further in August to 1.4% YoY. Current inflation trends will not be a hindrance to monetary policy easing, but we expect the central bank to remain on hold at the September meeting nonetheless. Additionally, Taiwan's PMI data is set for release on Monday.
Japan: Household spending and labor cash earnings expected to improve
Household spending and labor cash earnings data will be released on Friday. Both are expected to improve amid solid wage growth and cooling inflation. If we’re right, market expectations on the Bank of Japan's rate hike in October will only increase.
Key events in Asia next week

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Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...
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