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China’s inflation data is likely to cool in January. Other key releases include Taiwan trade, South Korea's jobless rate and Japan’s cash earnings.
China: Prices expected to continue cooling
China releases its January CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday. We expect CPI inflation to come in at 0.5% year-on-year, slightly lower than December’s 0.8%, as the Lunar New Year effect weighs on the data. The PPI is likely to remain negative for the 40th consecutive month, though it is expected to move higher to around -1.3% YoY amid higher commodity prices this month. China’s 70-city property prices are also expected to be released next Friday. Prices are likely to continue to see sequential declines as the sector awaits further policy support.
Taiwan: Continued strength in trade expected
Taiwan’s January trade data will be released on Monday. We look for strong trade numbers to continue, with 47.1% YoY export growth and 52.0% import growth, resulting in a trade surplus of $13.4bn.
South Korea: Jobless rate to drop amid new job programmes
We expect South Korea’s jobless rate to drop significantly to 3.2% in January from 4% the previous month. This monthly fluctuation is primarily due to the government job programmes schedule, with most public job programmes launching in the first quarter.
Japan: Cash earnings to support BoJ hiking decisions
Japan’s labour cash earnings are expected to improve amid strong winter bonuses. This month, real cash earnings should turn positive, helped by the recent drop in inflation. This trend is expected to persist, supporting BoJ rate hikes in the second quarter.
Key events in Asia next week
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Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...
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