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The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0890
• Prev. Close: 1.0862
• % chg. over the last day: -0.26 %

The ECB monetary policy meeting will be held today. Signs of slowing economic growth and weakening price pressures have reinforced the need for faster rate cuts to support the Eurozone economy. Last week, several ECB policymakers announced rate cuts for this week, so there is little question of a rate cut. Investors’ attention will, therefore, turn to President Lagarde’s press conference. She recently stated that their confidence that inflation will return to target will be reflected in the upcoming meeting, reinforcing expectations of further easing, namely in December. This would be a negative scenario for the euro. But if the ECB pulls a surprise and leaves the rate unchanged to cut in December, it would be a strong upside trigger for the euro.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0884, 1.0841
• Resistance levels: 1.0952, 1.0979, 1.1013, 1.1036, 1.1079, 1.1136, 1.1163

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The sellers were able to sell the support level of 1.0884, and now the price is trading in a wide hollow zone of liquidity to buy. The sellers’ pressure persists intraday, and there are all prerequisites for a fall to 1.0783. There is a trigger for this in the form of the ECB meeting. However, if the buyers push the price above 1.0884 on the news publication, it will be a strong trigger for the growth of the single European currency.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0951 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

News feed for 2024.10.17:

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
• US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
• US FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).
   

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3072
• Prev. Close: 1.2989
• % chg. over the last day: -0.64 %

The British pound fell sharply to below $1.3, the lowest since August 19, after UK inflation fell more than expected, bolstering the case for additional rate cuts by the Bank of England. The annual inflation rate slowed to 1.7%, the lowest since April 2021 and below estimates of 1.9%. Core inflation fell to 3.2% from 3.6%, and services inflation fell to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022. Investors now expect the Bank of England to cut the rate by 45bps by the end of the year, down from 37bps before the inflation report was released. The Central Bank is expected to cut borrowing costs by 25 bps next month.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2977, 1.2932
• Resistance levels: 1.3001, 1.3071, 1.3101, 1.3171, 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Buyers failed to show a reaction to the support level of 1.3000, and now the price has reached the support level of 1.2977. Considering the strong MACD divergence, we can look for buying here, but with a short stop loss. The first profit target is 1.3000. Further, it is necessary to evaluate the price reaction. If sellers react at 1.3, the price may resume the downward impulse. If there is no reaction from sellers to the level, the price could jump sharply to 1.3071.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3101 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

News feed for 2024.10.17:

There is no news feed for today.
 

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 149.24
• Prev. Close: 149.63
• % chg. over the last day: +0.26 %

The Japanese yen rose to 149.3 per dollar on Thursday but remained near its lowest level in 11 weeks as investors reacted to disappointing trade data. The data showed that Japan’s trade balance turned into a deficit in September as exports unexpectedly contracted and import growth slowed. On monetary policy, Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi said earlier this week that conditions for normalizing monetary policy are in place but stressed that the Central Bank should raise interest rates at a “very moderate” pace. He warned that the BoJ should avoid abrupt policy changes given the uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy and domestic wage growth.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 148.91, 148.32, 148.12, 147.50, 146.90, 146.02, 144.20, 143.53
• Resistance levels: 149.37, 151.03

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is still trading inside the void liquidity zone for selling above 149.73. And since the sellers are not reacting to this price for the day, there is a high probability that the upward movement will continue. Inside the day, we can look for buy deals, but with a short stop loss below 149.73. The target on the profit is 151.03. If the price goes below 149.73, it may trigger a sharp sell-off to 148.91 and lower.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 148.11, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2024.10.17:

• Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).
   

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2662
• Prev. Close: 2674
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45 %

Gold strengthened to a record high of 2680 dollars per ounce on Wednesday following a fall in Treasury yields and benefited from a slight decline in risk appetite as markets continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The Fed is expected to cut rates in its two remaining decisions this year and then extend the easing cycle through 2025. A rate cut from the ECB is also expected today. As a result, all conditions for further growth remain in place for gold.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2669, 2661, 2640, 2605, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Resistance levels: 2686, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, buyers showed initiative from the level of 2670, while sellers did not show resistance to the growth. This is a strong bullish factor, so in the coming days, we should expect the price to rise to 2700, with periodic pullbacks. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2640, the downtrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

News feed for 2024.10.17:

• US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
• US FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

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