Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 29 And October 6
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
||||
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
||
Week of September 29 |
||||
September 29 |
||||
Personal Income - August |
0.4% |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
0.5 |
|
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
11.0 |
7.1 |
10.3 |
|
Pending Home Sale Index - Aug |
105.5 |
105.9 |
106.6 |
|
September 30 |
||||
S&P Case/Shiller Index - July |
||||
Twenty City M/M |
1.3% |
1.0 |
1.1 |
|
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
0.3 |
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
7.5 |
8.1 |
7.5 |
|
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA |
||||
Chicago PMI - September |
60.0 |
64.3 |
62.0 |
|
Consumer Confidence - September |
92.0 |
92.4 |
92.5 |
|
October 1 |
||||
Auto Sales* - September |
17.10M |
17.53 |
16.80 |
|
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
||||
ADP Employment Report - September |
200K |
204 |
200 |
|
PMI Manufacturing Index |
57.9 |
57.9 |
58.0 |
|
ISM MFG - Sept |
58.3 |
59.0 |
58.0 |
|
ISM Prices |
58.0 |
58.0 |
57.0 |
|
Construction Spending - August |
0.3% |
1.8 |
0.5 |
|
October 2 |
||||
Initial Unemployment Claims |
300K |
298 |
297 |
|
Factory Orders - August |
-9.6% |
10.5 |
-9.3 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
-18.2 |
22.6 |
||
Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.3 |
-0.9 |
||
October 3 |
||||
Nonfarm Payrolls - September |
205K |
142 |
215 |
|
Private |
200 |
134 |
215 |
|
Manufacturing |
6 |
0 |
12 |
|
Unemployment |
6.1% |
6.1 |
6.1 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
International Trade - August |
-$40.5B |
-40.5 |
-40.6 |
|
ISM Services - September |
58.2 |
59.6 |
58.8 |
|
ISM Prices |
57.7 |
57.7 |
||
ISM Business Activity |
63.2 |
65.0 |
63.4 |
|
Week of October 6 |
||||
October 7 |
||||
Consumer Credit - August |
$21.0B |
26.0 |
20.0 |
|
October 9 |
||||
Wholesale Inventories - August |
0.4% |
0.1 |
0.3 |
|
Wholesale Sales |
||||
October 10 |
||||
Export Prices - September |
0.0% |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
|
Import Prices |
-0.8 |
-0.9 |
-0.5 |
|
Import Prices, ex-Energy |
0.0 |
|||
Treasury Budget - September |
70.4 |
-128.7 |
||
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
more