Before we all get too excited, bear in mind that this is November's data - so still horribly stale (and also missing October's data point entirely) - but it's all we have for now, so let's dive in...

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), which leave it up 2.8% YoY (as expected), slightly lower than September's +2.9%...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

Bear in mind that this morning's third look at Q3 GDP printed a +2.9% YoY for Core PCE.

Under the hood, the biggest driver of Core PCE remains Services costs - not tariff-driven Goods prices...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

In fact, on a MoM basis, Non-durable goods prices saw deflation for the second month in a row...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

Headline PCE rose 2.8% YoY (es expected), stubbornly refusing to show any signs of runaway Trump tariff costs...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

The closely-watched SuperCore PCE rose 0.2% MoM which ticked up the YoY rise to 3.1%...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

After surging in October, November saw Financial Services & Insurance and Healthcare cost inflation slow...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

Meanwhile, amid rising prices, Americans' spending outpaced incomes once again...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

...with wage growth slowing for all:

• Private worker wages and salaries: 4.1% YoY, down from 4.5%, lowest since June 2025

• Govt work wages and salaries 2.6%, tied for lowest since March 2021

All of which dragged the savings rate down to its lowest since Nov 2022...
 

TL/DR: While this data is admittedly stale, it shows no signs of 1) tariff-driven inflation or 2) a slowing consumer.

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