The market perceives a Fed rate hike in May as a 71.2 percent chance.

The above chart is courtesy of CME Fedwatch, highlights mine.

Rate hike odds jumped from 49.2 percent on Thursday to 71.2 percent on Friday. The jump was in reaction to a job report that was neither particularly hot or cold, and also inline with the consensus.

Nonfarm Jobs Rise In Line With Expectations in March, Hours Worked Dips

For discussion of the jobs report, please see Nonfarm Jobs Rise In Line With Expectations In March, Hours Worked Dips.

The jobs report was not hugely strong, but nor was it weak. It was in contrast to other jobs data that looks bleak.

• Initial and Continued Unemployment Claims Jump the Most in 15 Months
• Job Openings Plunge From Dizzy Heights, How Much is Still Real?
• Job Cuts Jump 15% in March, Up 319% from Last Year, Highest Q1 Since 2020
• Unexpected Weakness in ISM Services, Backlog and New Orders Plunge

The market perceives that as long as the payroll reports are reasonable, the Fed will keep hiking. It's a good bet actually, unless and until inflation data weakens considerably.

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Nonfarm Jobs Rise In Line With Expectations In March, Hours Worked Dips
Job Cuts Jump 15% In March, Up 319% From Last Year, Highest Q1 Since 2020