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We have a big morning of economic data with the Retail Sales and Producer Price Index both being published ahead of the market open.

• Headline retail sales are expected to rebound, rising 0.8% compared to January after that month’s nearly 1.0% drop. Excluding auto sales, the market sees February Retail Sales up 0.5%.

• The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) for February is also expected to climb, rising 1.1% YoY compared to January’s 0.9% move. Helping fuel that expectation is the rebound in energy prices and as many consumers know those at the gas pump. The market’s take on Core PPI is for it to inch lower to 1.9% YoY, down from 2.0% the month before, but so far, the majority of February inflation data and comments moved in a different direction.

Should we see that trend continue with this morning’s PPI figures, both for headline and core, it would be another reason for the Fed to have a more cautious tone when it comes to rate cuts following next week’s policy meeting. 

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