February 2021 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Significantly Improves

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) can be used as a predictor of future job growth, and the predictive elements show that the year-over-year growth rate of unadjusted private non-farm job openings year-over-year rate of growth SIGNIFICANTLY improved and continues in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of JOLTS Data

The unadjusted data this month is above average for the rate of growth seen since the beginning of 2019. In other words, JOLTS is predicting job growth in the range of 300,000+ per month.

Market expectations from Econoday were 6.700 M to 6.995 M (consensus 6.850 M) with actual at 7.400 M

The graphs below use the year-over-year growth of JOLTS Job Openings - both the level of openings and rate of openings.

Last month's graphs

This Month's Graphs

Before the pandemic, there was a skills mismatch in the U.S. workforce - as job openings are higher than the number of unemployed people. The pandemic reversed this relationship.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The JOLTS Unadjusted Private hires rate (percent of hires compared to the size of the workforce) and the separations rate (percent of separations compared to the size of the workforce - separations are the workforce which quit or was laid off).

Unadjusted Hires (blue line) and Unadjusted Separation Levels (red line) - Non-Farm Private

(Click on image to enlarge)

Please note that Econintersect has not been able to use the hire rate or the separation rate (or a combination thereof) to help in understanding future job growth. A Philly Fed study agrees with Econintersect's assessment. JOLTS is issued a month later than the jobs data - and correlates against one-month-old data.

For information, the Econintersect Employment Index and the Conference Board's Employment Index:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Caveats on the Use of JOLTS

This data series historically is very noisy which likely is a result of data gathering issues and/or seasonal adjustments. Therefore this series must be trended to provide an understanding of the dynamics. One of two months of good or bad data is not predictive.

Disclaimer: No content is to be construed as investment advise and all content is provided for informational purposes only.The reader is solely responsible for determining whether any investment, ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.