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Ethereum (ETH) price has entered early 2026 trading near a decisive technical zone after rebounding from December lows. Price action is now testing a multi-month resistance band, with analysts weighing breakout potential against renewed downside risks. Market structure, futures positioning, and historical seasonality are shaping near-term expectations.

Ethereum Price Tests $3,200–$3,400 Resistance Zone

According to analyst Ted, the 10-day ETH price chart from mid-2025 to early 2026 reflects a prolonged period of consolidation. Multiple resistance levels between $3,300 and $3,800 have capped rallies for months. At the same time, support zones near $2,800 and $2,500 have consistently absorbed selling pressure.

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SOURCE: X

Ethereum price recently rebounded from December lows near $2,800 and advanced toward the $3,200–$3,400 range. This area represents a critical pivot for market direction. A confirmed reclaim would indicate renewed trend expansion after months of range-bound activity.

Moreover, a move above $3,400 could unlock upside toward $3,800 and $4,000. Such a move would require stronger volume than seen during recent sessions. Conversely, rejection from resistance may prompt another test of $3,000 support during thin January liquidity.

Mid-term structure suggests Ethereum is digesting 2025 gains rather than distributing aggressively. A break with volume would confirm bullish continuation, while failure to reclaim resistance would keep price within the established range.

Futures Liquidity Grab Signals ETH Price Test

Meanwhile, analyst Lennaert Snyder analyzed the 4-hour ETH perpetual futures chart on MEXC. The chart shows a descending wedge breakdown followed by a sharp liquidity sweep above $3,250. This move cleared short-term stops before the price rotated lower.

Despite the rejection wick, price has held above the $3,000 psychological level. Downside momentum has weakened, suggesting sellers lack follow-through. This behavior is typical during futures-driven liquidity hunts.

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SOURCE: X

Additionally, holding above $3,100 remains key, as stability in this zone could support another push toward $3,300. A failure to hold would expose downside risk toward the lower range support.

In addition, the presence of the monthly open below the current price adds technical confluence. Futures positioning often resets early in the year. Traders are closely watching volume for confirmation during volatile intraday sessions.

Historical Returns Support Constructive Ethereum Price Outlook

According to data shared by analyst Money Guru Digital, Ethereum’s quarterly returns show a notable seasonal pattern. Historically, red fourth quarters have often been followed by strong first and second quarters. Examples include 2017 and 2020, which delivered substantial gains after Q4 weakness.

Every red Q4 for $ETH has been followed by a green Q1 and Q2.

Will history repeat itself? pic.twitter.com/U9KOjhFCZn

— Money Guru Digital (@Moneygurudigi) January 5, 2026

Q4 2025 closed with a notable loss, aligning with this historical setup. Early Q1 2026 data already reflect modest gains. This supports the idea of a potential continuation phase rather than prolonged consolidation.

Furthermore, Ethereum’s cycle behavior often aligns with broader market expansions. Previous red Q4 periods marked structural lows before sustained advances. Current data suggests a similar environment, assuming macro conditions remain stable.

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