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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was at the White House this week. And it’s a safe bet the subject of oil prices came up. A decade ago, the Saudis turned on the taps to flush out US shale. But the reality today is different, notes Elliott Gue, editor of Energy and Income Advisor.

The sector then was at the end of a multi-year investment boom. Awash in debt and over-capacity, it was already ripe for a reckoning. Long-time Energy and Income Advisor readers will recall our forecast for North American benchmark oil prices to bottom out near $20 a barrel, down from $100+.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) Chart
 

Why bring this up now? Because there’s a growing narrative on Wall Street that 2025-2026 will be a repeat of the bloodbath of a decade ago. That stems from what we see as the exceptionally bearish oil price forecasts now circulating among some of the larger investment banks, which also extend to natural gas.

Bearish opinion has made laggards out of many energy stocks this year. The super major-dominated Select Sector Energy SDPR ETF (XLE) is in the black this year with a total return of a little less than 10%, but still underperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

But the idea this is 2015 all over again is pure bearish fantasy. And you don’t have to look any further than freshly reported Q3 results and guidance to see best-in-class energy companies are not just still growing and raising dividends now. They’re arguably the best prepared they’ve ever been for a downturn, thanks to conservative investment strategies focused as much on controlling costs and cutting debt as expanding revenue.

Bottom line: The North American oil and gas industry was ripe for collapse in 2015. But here in late 2025, it’s just not. In fact, the real question is if it will be able to meet the emerging demand growth of the next few years.

About the Author

Elliott Gue is chief strategist at Capitalist Times, an investment research firm he co-founded ten years ago. Prior to founding Capitalist Times, he shared his expertise and stock-picking abilities with individual investors in several highly regarded research publications, including The Energy Strategist, and as chief editor of Personal Finance, one of the largest and oldest financial newsletter publications in the US.

Mr. Gue is one of the foremost experts on energy investing and has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities, and meeting with management teams.

He is also the co-author of two investment books published by the FT Press, The Silk Road to Riches: How You Can Profit by Investing in Asia's Newfound Prosperity and Rise of the State: Profitable Investing and Geopolitics in the 21^st Century.

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