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That horizontal line is really something else, isn’t it? The /ES just keeps changing sides on it, and we wound up pretty close to it (as support) at the close. The day was overall bullish (+62 on the /ES and about +250 on the /NQ) although, as it often does, the market faded a bit once Powell strolled away from his podium.

The longer view illustrates what a weird “draw” this line is for the /ES. I’m relieved the Fed is behind us, but honestly, I have no strong sense as to what Thursday will bring, which is one of the reasons I am maintaining a pretty high cash balance (34%).

Just like Monday was Now or Never for Netflix, it is the exact same setup. NFLX is very representative of the state of the market right now: on the one hand, the bears could have the 1,348th fakeout of the past few years and have to wallow in disappointment, and on the other hand maybe the breakdown will actually take place.

As for energy, I finally screamed “Uncle” on CNQ and COP and closed them at about a 20% loss, which pretty much guarantees the entire energy complex will collapse tomorrow. I maintain puts on XOP, however.

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