The Uptrend Continues Into September
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The SPX uptrend continues, although August saw more of a choppy, mostly sideways advance. What is important to note, though, is that the trend remains upward and with very few new 52-week lows on the NYSE. This is a bullish indicator.
The SPX equal-weight also looks good. Every dip in the price of this ETF is seemingly being met with buying.
There is a debate among the people at Investors.com about the importance of the following chart. There is a slight weakness in these two leading ETFs, although it's not particularly significant.
The debate centers on the meaning of this weakness for the broader market. Some feel that when the leading sector is weak, it means the entire market is weakening and potentially ready to roll over. Others point to the fact that it is simply a healthy rotation out of the leading technology stocks and into other, underappreciated areas of the market. I'm on the fence, myself.
The PMO index, the bedrock indicator for my investing strategy, is in disarray. This indicator really isn't telling me anything helpful at the moment.
On the other hand, the price chart of the junk bond ETF is crystal clear, pointing bullishly upwards.
The longer-term chart of net new highs/lows is also pointing bullishly upwards.
I have to admit to being quite surprised by the market's lack of response to the weak job creation numbers reported by the government on Friday morning. It is possible that investors may need the weekend to think about it, and perhaps the selling will begin on Monday. I don't know.
Bottom Line
I'm uncertain about what to think about the market at the moment. I do know that it is historically a bad time of year for stocks, and yet they continue to do well.
I am being cautious, with about 65% invested in top-quality stocks, and the remainder in cash. Of the stocks I own, a large percentage is in gold mining stocks, which have been doing well. When the tech and industrials stocks I own are down, the gold miners are up, and vice versa, and considering the choppiness of the market, this means that my accounts aren't making a lot of progress.
Meanwhile, the next chart provides a look at the gold miners and the related Pring inflation index. I'd say gold miners are extended, but I don't want to sell because I know from past experience that they can often run a lot higher than expected.
The monthly chart shows that this recent strength is, in fact, a huge breakout to new highs, which is very bullish looking.
The yellow metal broke out last year, and it has barely paused. It is very overbought, according to the RSI, so there is a risk for sure that the price is extended.
The recent price action is just incredible.
This next ETF continues to do well. I can't believe I missed this.
The following ETF has paused a bit, but there hasn't been much of a pullback in price.
This next ETF continues to push higher.
There is a lot of volatility in the price of this ETF, but it also looks like it could provide a high reward if it breaks to new highs.
More new highs can be found in the following ETF.
Are new highs ahead for the following ETF?
Outlook Summary
- The short-term trend is uncertain for stock prices.
- The medium-term trend is neutral for Treasury bond prices.
More By This Author:
The Market Doesn't QuitSelling Pressure Behind The Scenes
An Unexpected Price Pullback In The Market
Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. I am a private investor and blogger. The comments below reflect my view of the market and indicate what I am doing with my own accounts. The ...
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