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The short-term uptrend appears set to continue, although it has been looking wobbly. The PMO has turned down, but it doesn't seem quite ready to move much lower yet.

The SPX moved sideways this past week, holding above the late October high, and it showed a bit of strength in the close on both Thursday and Friday. The low volume is probably due to the approaching holiday.

Before declaring a new downtrend, I think you need to see the major indexes close solidly below their five-day averages, and that hasn't happened yet. The Dow index still looks constructive, in my opinion.

The bullish percents have pulled back just a bit, but this chart shows that these indicators have been stair-stepping higher since October, and this week's tiny pullback seems consistent with the upward pattern.

The junk bond ETF hasn't been showing signs of stress like it did on Nov. 9. I am not seeing anything here indicating that a market downtrend is brewing other than the fact that the price is just under some resistance.

The number of new 52-week lows on the Nasdaq has been at elevated levels even with the general market performing well for four to five weeks. This helps confirm that we are experiencing a counter rally within a bear market. 

The number of new lows on the NYSE was a bit elevated on Wednesday and Thursday, and that seemed like a hint (along with the turn lower for the PMO index) that the market was getting ready to turn lower in the short-term. But, on Friday, the new lows settled down and the market behaved itself, so a new downtrend is at least postponed.

The summation indexes aren't telling me much in the short-term other than to say that they don't have the same kind of strength shown last July and August. When the market is ready to turn lower again, we'll probably get a good confirmation signal in this chart similar to the short-term peak on Aug. 22.

Bottom line: I really thought the market was peaking in the short-term on Thursday because there were so many new 52-week lows on both exchanges. However, the strength into the close on Thursday, along with Friday's decent session, has put the new downtrend on hold for now. 

Longer-term yields have pulled back, and they may have peaked for this bear market. The debate now starts about what the strength in Treasury prices indicates. Does it mean inflation has peaked and the economy can grow again so we can buy and hold stocks? Or does it mean inflation has peaked because the economy has weakened, and we should prepare for a recession by being in cash? 

Oil prices really tumbled on Friday, but prices are still holding above the late-September low. To me, this still looks like a topping pattern, but it could also prove to be a sideways consolidation before the next run higher. 

Outlook Summary

• The short-term trend is up for stock prices as of Oct. 13.
• The economy is at risk of recession as of March 2022.
• The medium-term trend is higher for treasury bond prices as of Nov. 19.

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