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The short-term uptrend looks set to continue, although it hasn't been a strong one. Additionally, it appears as though the broader market hasn't really moved much.

The major indexes remained above their 5-day averages last week. The SPX and Dow pushed to new short-term highs, but the NDX lagged a bit after initially leading higher.

The bullish percents were pointing higher, although the uptrends were not decisive. The NYSE bullish percent showed off an uninspired drift higher, and the Nasdaq bullish percent barely moved.

New 52-week lows on the NYSE remained at harmless levels, which is bullish for the stock market, but the recent Nasdaq levels have been indicating a problem for stocks. The Nasdaq new 52-week lows appear way too elevated, and this tells me that there is a lot of risk of a general stock market sell-off.

Bottom Line

I am about 5% long stocks and about 20% short stocks via inverse ETFs. Because the short-term uptrend looks set to tick higher, the shorts have not performed well. My shorts were added too early, and it is a reminder to myself to respect the short-term trend and to wait patiently for the signal that the trend has changed.

Outlook Summary

• The short-term trend is up for stock prices as of March 29.
• The economy is at risk of recession as of March 2022.
• The medium-term trend is uncertain for Treasury bond prices as of Feb. 4.

More By This Author:

The Market Won't Be Rushed Into The Next Short-Term Downtrend
Finally A New Short-Term Uptrend
The Start Of A New Short-Term Uptrend?