Speculation Isn’t A Strategy - Unless You Know The Rules

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Just because the market’s ripping doesn’t mean it’s time to throw caution to the wind. I’m not here to wave pom-poms when silver miners spike or when meme stocks catch a bid. I trade with a plan, and I trade with purpose. If you’re just chasing green candles, you’re not trading—you’re gambling.

Now, I’ve been working on a strategy that I think every small-account trader should pay attention to. It’s rooted in what I call “ghost prints” and gamma plays. These aren’t guesses, they’re patterns. I’m looking for unusual activity, big orders under the surface, the kind of stuff that tips the hand of the institutions. When I see it early in the week, I pounce. Not later. Early.

This approach has helped me close out 16 trades -- as 16 winners. Let me show you what I’m looking at right now.

Take the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) for example. I got in on some $12.50 calls for 14 cents. They ran up to 69 cents. That’s a +300% trade.

The same setup happened with Halliburton (HAL): five-cent calls that started moving. That’s what I’m after: trades that can turn a few bucks into something meaningful. If you’ve got a $500 account, that’s how you grow it to $5,000. You don’t get there by buying Apple and hoping for a slow grind higher. You get there by catching fire when it’s ready to light.

But listen—this isn’t a “buy and pray” strategy. Gamma plays work because I know they’re short-lived. You’re not marrying these trades. You’re dating them. Quick in, quick out. These are high-conviction setups that you manage before the crowd catches on.

And speaking of managing, let’s talk market conditions. Everyone's euphoric right now. That should make you nervous. The skew is rising. VIX metrics are flashing yellow. Institutional players are preparing for volatility like it’s February all over again. When the market’s rising and volatility expectations are rising with it, that’s a red flag. You don’t wait for the music to stop to start looking for a chair.

I’m not saying it’s time to be bearish across the board. I’m saying be smart. Trim profits while others are still slapping high-fives. Reduce risk while the headlines are still bullish. Don’t let a green P&L lull you into thinking you're invincible.

Look, silver miners are popping, and everyone’s suddenly a commodity bull. But these names? They’re not growth stocks. They don’t have earnings momentum. Their only real catalyst is the price of silver. That’s not a long-term thesis—it’s a trade. Know the difference.


Bottom Line

I’m not a perma-bull or a perma-bear. I’m a realist. I trade setups, not stories. And right now, the setups are there—if you know what you’re doing. But don’t confuse a hot streak with a bull market. Have a plan. Follow it. And always remember: speculation isn’t a strategy—unless you know the rules.


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