SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 1/18/24 at 4780.94.

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Our gain for 2023 came in at 28.12% and SPX gain for 2023 came in at 23.38. We made 8 SPX trades with one loss and 7 wins in 2023.

Most likely a trading range is starting. Last Wednesday’s decline produced a “Selling Climax” (volume 100% higher compared to previous days). “Selling Climaxes” usually stops the decline as volume reaches exhaustion levels. Most “Selling Climaxes” are tested at some point and likely on the current one. This week is the week before Option Expiration week where whipsaws are common and where the test of the “Selling Climax” is possible. If the test of the “Selling Climax” is tested on a 10% lighter volume (likely in the current setup), it will imply support and could kick off the next rally. Expiration week is when the next rally phase may begin which starts 2/12/24, We are staying long the SPX. 

What we said last Thursday still applies, we said, “The third window up from the bottom is the 63-day average of the TRIN. The 63-day average of the TRIN above 1.10 (current reading is 1.13) suggests an intermediate uptrend has started. We noted the times in light blue when the 63-day TRIN reached above 1.10 and you will notice that they were coming off major lows. A 63-day TRIN above 1.10 suggests there is enough panic in the market to drive it higher for the next several months. When the 63-day TRIN falls below 1.00 are times when an important top can form (noted with red lines and shaded pink areas).”

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