To my way of thinking, one proxy for the whole China/US trade deal (or no deal) is the agricultural products fund, symbol DBA. It isn’t particularly heavily-traded, and it’s been in a steady grind-down for years.

Recently, it has had a nice pop, thanks to – – you guessed it – – Trade Talk Optimism. If, as I do, you believe mid-October will be greeted with yet another failure of these talks, this could be an interesting short.

(Click on image to enlarge)