SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 5/31/22 at 4151.09.

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long Term SPX monitor purposes; Neutral

We thought today would be an up day in that the TRIN closed yesterday at 2.06 and the Tick at -172 which is a bullish combination and suggests a low would form today to as late as two days later which would be Thursday. Today the TRIN closed at 1.28 and the tick at -313 which is another bullish combination and adds to the bullish scenario. Last week the NDX was up 5 days in a row (SPX was up 4 days) which predicts the market will be higher within five days 83% of the time. Last Thursday we said, “Another interesting piece of information is that if this week is up (very likely) next week will be up 88% of the time. The short-term picture remains bullish.” The odds point to a higher market before this week is out.

The Full moon is July 13 (tomorrow) and sometimes it appears to affect the market (from our observation). The bottom window on the chart above is the NYSE Advance/Decline with a 4-period moving average. Readings above 4 are a “Sign of Strength” in the market. The top window is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. Closes above +300 are another form of a “Sign of Strength”. Both indicators recorded a “Sign of Strength” on May 27 and these “Sign of strength” appear near intermediate-term lows. The market did close to a new low on June 16. It's common after a “Sign of Strength” for the market to pull back and this one pulled back to a new low. Nevertheless, a “Sign of Strength” is an important event at market lows.

The second window down from the top is the Bullish Percent index for the Gold miner’s index/GDX ratio and the top window is the RSI (10) for this ratio. Data for this chart goes back to 2008. We picked the times with the RSI for this ratio fell below 25 (the most extreme events) which happen 7 times previous with one failure in the bear market of 2013. This works out 86% success rate. The six successful trades had at least a multi-month rally and some lasted a year or so. The moon cycle appears to have an effect on the gold market and tomorrow is a full moon. There is an eight-month gold cycle coming in near the current time also.

More By This Author:

Rare Signal Generated On GDX
A Need To See "Sign Of Strength"
Panic Bottom - It's All In The Chart