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The ongoing tariff uncertainty has been weighing on the earnings outlook in recent weeks, prompting analysts to cut their estimates for the coming periods. This trend has been showing in estimates for the current period (2025 Q2) as well as for full-year 2025.

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The current expectation is for Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index to increase by +6.3% from the same period last year on +3.9% higher revenues. The +6.3% earnings growth in Q2 is down from +9.6% on April 8^th and +12.2% on January 8^th. Estimates for full-year 2025 have similarly been under pressure.

This is a bigger decline relative to what we have become used to seeing in the comparable periods of other recent quarters.

This negative revisions trend notwithstanding, estimates for the Tech sector have started rising again. We are seeing this trend reversal for Q2 as well as for full-year 2025.

With respect to the Q1 earnings season scorecard, we now have results from 440 S&P 500 members or 88% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +12.2% from the same period last year on +4.1% higher revenues, with 73.4% beating EPS estimates and 61.8% beating revenue estimates.

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