Macro Briefing - Tuesday, Oct. 28

President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi sign agreement to cooperate on rare earths to lessen dependence on China for the exports of these minerals. Ahead of the announcement, a US-listed ETF targeting stocks in Japan (EWJ) rallied, closing on Monday near a record high.

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Pressure points from the government shutdown are set to increase if the political impasse runs beyond Nov. 1. One example, Politico reports: “Thousands of federal employees will miss their first full paychecks this week, so services like TSA screenings and air traffic control operations could be further stunted if those workers stop showing up, as was the case during the 35-day partial shutdown that ended in early 2019.”

Amazon (AMZNplans to layoff up to 30,000 employees among its corporate staff. The planned layoffs would represent the biggest job cuts across the tech industry since at least 2020.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday confirmed the names of five candidates to replace Jerome Powell, whose term as chair of the Federal Reserve expires next year. The five people under consideration: Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman; former Fed governor Kevin Warsh; White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett; and Rick Rieder, senior managing director at asset manager BlackRock.

Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, according to the Dallas Fed’s survey of business executives. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was unchanged at a below-average reading for output growth for the second consecutive month.

The prospect of a US-China trade deal fueled a rise in the US stock market on Monday. The S&P 500 Index closed at a record high. “A lot of the forecasts for technology have been without the benefit of China, so once you can add China back into the equation, that would probably be fairly optimistic for the markets,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, told CNBC.

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