Macro Briefing - Tuesday, April 29

Treasury Secretary Bessent on Monday said Beijing is responsible for reaching a trade agreement with the US. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, and so these 120%, 145% tariffs are unsustainable.”

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President Trump is expected to soften auto tariffs, said a top White House official. “This deal is a major victory for the President’s trade policy by rewarding companies who manufacture domestically,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a statement. The change will means that car companies paying tariffs would not be charged other levies, such as those on steel and aluminum, and reimbursements would be awarded for such tariffs already paid.

California overtakes Japan to become world’s fourth-largest economy. The Golden State’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) rose to $4.1 trillion in 2024, according to preliminary data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, edging above Japan’s $4.02 trillion.

US ports are bracing for a sharp decline in volume due to tariffs placed on China. “No way we can make up for the 30-60% lost volumes from China [via other countries] due to the tariffs,” said Jason Miller, who teaches supply chain at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business. “This bodes quite ill for local employment around the most affected ports, as fewer imports equal fewer drayage drivers and warehouse workers, coupled with knock-on effects from less activity in general. Unless the 145% China tariffs are dropped very soon, I don’t see how this scenario is avoided.”


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