July ETF Update
Image Source: Unsplash
As we sit here with the most expensive stock market in history, let’s take a look at some ETF charts.
The SPY has blasted higher almost nonstop from April 7. Indeed, checking x.com, “$SPX” is one of the top trending items, which should tell you just how many shoeshine boys are out there.
What’s remarkable to me about this chart is that the SPY did an almost perfect “tag” of its multi-decade channel on April 7. And, as of now, it did a perfect, and I do mean perfect, tag of the midline of this same channel. It’s right to the penny.
The Dow 30 is not at 'high-life' highs, although one glance at Zerohedge and you’ll be absolutely convinced that the 50,000 mark is just weeks away. The bull mania has reached year 1999/2007/2020 levels once again.
The safe haven of gold is quickly falling out of favor, and it’s been literally months since people were excited about its performance.
Silver, too, is sinking, although it has an opportunity for support at that gap located around $31.
You know by now what a fan I’ve become of palladium. Just look how much the volume has picked up. This ETF traded only about 30,000 shares a day a couple of months back, and now it’s ten times higher.
I don’t want to get carried away, but the last time it hammered out a bullish base, great things transpired.
As for tech, there are just no words at this point. My own household, quite ironically, is the beneficiary of this insanity, but I seriously look forward to the day when it comes crashing down, maybe in the year 2730 or so.
The propulsion behind tech has been AI, of course, and in turn, semiconductors. This fund has been a bottle rocket since, again, April 7, and it’s at the cusp of ripping past its own former peak.
I would caution again that bonds continue to hammer out what could be another epic top in the context of a half-decade old bear market. Watch that base.
As for oil, it was almost too predictable: the red dashed line you see as been the exhaustion point for years, and even a week ago when a war was promised to us, it couldn’t even muster its way back to the prior peak. Instead, within two trading sessions, all of the fear-mongering gains have vanished.
I remain short the materials fund, shown below, with a tight stop at that dashed red line.
I am also short the oil producers fund, likewise with a tight stop.|
We have a shortened week ahead: just three full trading days, and a half day on Thursday. The bulls have basically smashed any bearish dreams (again), and a strong Monday would pretty much finish the job.
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