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In its latest update, the bank projects that Bitcoin (BTC) could eventually reach about $240,000, even after dropping from its early-October peak of roughly $126,000 to the low-$80,000 range in November, where it recently traded around $86,000.

This optimistic forecast is predicated on a fundamental shift in market dynamics.

JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin is increasingly shaped by the same macroeconomic conditions that influence other risk assets. 

Its analysts say interest rates, global liquidity, and broader economic signals now matter more than Bitcoin’s familiar four-year halving cycle.

To explain the shift, the bank outlined how the market structure has changed:

• Crypto now behaves like a macro asset rather than a halving-driven one.
• Institutional liquidity is replacing retail speculation as the main driver.
• Early-stage, VC-style funding rounds have faded.
• Retail participation continues to decline.
• Institutions now contribute most of the market depth.
• Uneven liquidity still leads to sharper short-term swings.

JPMorgan says these structural trends support the idea that Bitcoin is becoming a long-term growth asset rather than a cyclical one. 

A speaker at the bank’s recent event went further, suggesting BTC could “potentially reach $240K over the long term,” framing the asset as something investors may approach on a multi-year horizon.

JP Morgan offers new structured bitcoin ETF note

Complementing its research, JP Morgan introduced a new structured product tied to the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (Nasdaq: IBIT). This note offers investors Bitcoin exposure with predefined conditions that determine returns and risks, including a mechanism for principal protection.

The bank breaks the mechanics of the note into clear outcomes:

• Early Redemption: Should the IBIT ETF meet a preset level by the end of 2026, the note is called early, yielding at least a 16% return.
• Extended Term: If the target is not met by 2026, the note continues through 2028.
• Upside Potential: Investors can earn 1.5 times their principal, with no cap, if IBIT finishes above JPMorgan’s 2028 target.
• Downside Protection: Principal is protected unless IBIT declines by more than approximately 30% at maturity. Should this barrier be broken, principal losses would match the ETF’s percentage decline, with the potential for a total loss in a deep downturn.

The filing notes that the product does not guarantee principal and carries risks tied directly to IBIT’s performance.

JPMorgan’s outlook and product launch arrive as the crypto sector faces a broader debate over institutional influence, index eligibility, and how regulators should treat companies with heavy Bitcoin exposure. 

Nevertheless, despite these uncertainties, the bank maintains that Bitcoin’s evolution toward a macro-driven asset class is well underway.

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