Is It Time To Sell Your Tech Stocks For Gold?
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As we've witnessed historic volatility in the stock markets lately, we'll head into the week with a look at the relative performance of Gold vs. tech stocks and uncover some very strong evidence that the recent market shake up could actually be the beginning of a more significant capital rotation.
The first chart is a simple ratio of the Nasdaq vs Gold, which I have defined as a bull market channel that began to take shape out of the Global Financial Crisis about 15 years ago. Embedded within the channel is a strong nine-year support line. Here, we can see that the Nasdaq strongly outperformed gold with a ratio that began in 2011 around 1 and peaked in 2021 at more than 9! However, just this past February, both the nine-year support and larger channel have appeared to fail. Momentum has clearly shifted from tech to gold.
Looking at the strongest tech stocks - the Magnificent Seven - vs gold, we see a similar picture. The Mag 7 (AAPL, GOOG, META, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT) have been the tech bull market leaders against gold. But over the past few years, momentum has waned, and it appears that a double top may have formed by the 2021 and 2025 peaks. And just this week, it looks like the bull market trendline has been violated. While a breakdown will need to be confirmed over the coming weeks, a lot of technical damage appears to have been done, and the set-up is certainly there for gold to now enter a bull market against the Mag 7.
A quick look at a few more charts seems to add more evidence of a capital rotation. VGT (a Vanguard Tech ETF) has broken down substantially against gold, violating two major support lines.
AAPL has fallen out of a HUGE bearish rising wedge, complete with a classic breakdown, backtest and continuation that may well now lead to a waterfall decline.
MSFT looks to have double-topped and has since fallen out of its bull market channel.
There are more charts I could show you, but they paint a similar picture. It seems indeed that there has been a very significant change in the way tech stocks trade against gold. From my point of view, it is indeed time to sell those tech stocks and buy gold.
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