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Equity markets have recovered most of the losses from late July and early August. Concerns about labor market weakness, recession, and the yen carry trade have lessened somewhat. And the historically elusive “soft landing” economic scenario that we have been forecasting for almost two years remains in place.  The iShares Global 100 ETF (IOO) is a good play in this environment.

Fed Chair Jay Powell, a prototypical economist, tries to cover all the angles. While he has indicated it is time to reduce interest rates in support of employment and the economy, he also warned that inflation may be stubborn returning to the 2% target.

The return to balance for the “dual mandate” (away from inflation in favor of supporting the labor market) has opened the door to rate cuts. However, the lingering threat of losing control of inflation is why we think the Fed will cut by only 25 basis points in September. It is also why cuts may be slower in late 2024 and 2025 than currently priced into the market.

iShares Global 100 ETF (IOO)

Looking closer, why not cut 50 basis points in September and 100 basis points by year-end as many analysts project? There are two major reasons the Fed won’t be that aggressive:

1) As we mentioned above, the Fed doesn’t want a resurgence of inflation. Overly aggressive Fed easing could result in economic overheating, which could be counterproductive.

2) The economy may well be resilient enough – on its own -- to proceed slowly.

With a favorable interest rate policy and a durable economy, our outlook over the next six to nine months is positive for stocks and bonds.

As for IOO, it seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of 100 large-capitalization global equities. The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in securities of the underlying index and in depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index.

It may invest the remainder of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents, as well as in securities not included in the underlying index, but which the advisor believes will help the fund track the underlying index.

Recommended Action: Buy IOO.

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