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This fact may surprise quite a few investors. During the period from January 1, 2000, through August 31, 2025, gold bullion delivered significantly higher returns than the S&P 500. Throw in last week, 9/08 – 09/12/2025 where the S&P 500 Index rose 0.3% compared to 4% for GLD, the most-traded gold ETF and gold’s outperformance widens further. However, if dividends are taken into account and assumed to be reinvested as happens automatically for purchasers of S&P 500 ETF SPY, then the annualized margin of outperformance is cut from more than 4% per year to approximately 2.5% per year.  For the decade beginning at January 1, 2020, the annualized outperformance, even on a total return basis, is more than 3.9%.  Compared to a 20^th Century consisting of relative net stagnancy for gold over the 100-year period, gold has been even more resilient than equities thus far.

Key performance metrics (Jan 1, 2000–Aug 31, 2025)

The expectations of market strategists and pension consultants were quite different heading into 2000.  Many were arguing against the traditional allocation of 5% to 10% to gold and/or other commodities.  One widely followed consultant wrote that gold is a dying asset that will always have a flat-to-negative return over long periods of time. Perhaps 25 years is not long enough.  Let’s take a quick look at what has changed things and has led to a global increase of gold relative to fiat currencies not seen since the 1930s. 

Gold showed a strong performance during market downturns, including the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, which provided updated evidence that its value as a portfolio diversifier was not a thing of the past. 

Lets break this down decade by decade.  From 2000 through 2009: Gold proved its mettle during a difficult decade for equities.  This period included the dot-com crash, post-9/11 global stability fears and the 2008 financial crisis, causing three significant bear markets for the S&P 500.  Gold enjoyed a strong rally, beginning the decade at around $270 and closing near $1,087 per ounce.  In contrast, investors in SPY, the first S&P 500 ETF, experienced a "lost decade," with an annualized return of -9.78%. 

During the next decade, things started changing after the first two years, as post-financial-crisis confidence began to reinforce investor and consumer confidences in governmental stability.  In 2010 and 2011, gold still prevailed.  Although SPY rebounded nicely in both years, GLD had even higher returns both times.  That was it for GLD  for the decade, however, as it underperformed SPY during 7 of the next eight years during an exceptional bull market for stocks.  The exception was 2018 when both ETFs were down but GLD was down less.  From 2013 through 2015, investors began using their gold allocations as sources of fund to buy stocks.  Consequently, GLD plummeted more than 40%.  Positive returns in 2016, 2017 and 2019, although not keeping up with SPY, allowed GLD to finish the decade a shade into positive territory.  Moreover, at the end of 2019, bullion was still outperforming the S&P 500 price index for the century.  .

The current decade beginning with the Covid-19 Pandemic has been highly profitable for holders of both SPY and GLD.  2020, many will recall saw SPY take as much as a 40% plunge in the month of March followed by an even sharper rebound for the rest of the year.  At the same time, the pandemic did quite a lot to shake faith for many people in global stability and GLD climbed 25% compared with the 18% gain for SPY.   In 2021, with the nation optimistic that the pandemic was being controlled, GLD was used as a source of funds for stocks, slipping 4% while SPY gained 21%.  In 2022, the spike in inflation was killing consumer confidence and didn’t help the stock market either, spurring a reversal with an 18% loss by SPY while GLD lost 0.8%. The war in Ukraine was another possible factor in the erosion of confidence among global investors.  Both GLD and SPY have posted double-digit gains in the past twenty months with gold taking off even higher since June of 2024.  We think it may not be coincidental that during the same period the dollar has weakened considerable with respect to the Euro. There appears to be a dichotomy where US equity investors believe corporate profits in leadership companies will continue to accelerate; they continue to pour money into these and other index stocks.  However, fund flows from Europe and a number of other countries into US-dollar denominated assets has significantly decreased and with these moves, the dollar continues to decline.

The reason for this long recap of why the price of gold has defied experts’ expectations is to set the stage for where we are now.  The point is not that gold, and US stocks are inversely correlated as many believe. In fact, that is definitely not true.  Certainly, the performance we have seen in the past 25 years is not about gold as a commodity. The commodity indices have not done very well in many of the years that gold thrived. The latter group did very well when there were concerns about inflation but gold’s pricing behavior indicates that it is the asset of choice when global investors (gold being a global asset) are concerned about the current and future stability of major governments and the ability of major global economies to dig themselves out of holds. Gold prospers when investors have long-term stability concerns even if they still see opportunities in the global stock markets.  For US denominated assets, the price of gold also tends to rise when the US dollar makes a major move downward.  The disinvesting trend of major global investors in US-denominated assets has not abated.  To us, this questions the conventional wisdom that gold has had too much of a run and is too overpriced to be a prudent investment now  In fact, using the major gold mining stocks as a proxy, it may be too early to stop adding to positions in gold relative to US equities. 

At ValuEngine, we currently cover 38 gold mining stocks that are listed on major exchanges.  This industry is dominated by relatively small companies. Only 8 have a market capitalization of greater than $10 billion while 13 stocks with a market capitalization between $1 and $9.9 billion.  Focusing on the top 8 market cap stocks, three are rated 5 (Strong Buy), four are rated 4 (Buy) and the final stock, Kinross Corp (KGC) is rated 3 (Hold).  It is quite unusual for our predictive model for any industry to have 87.5% of all its stocks greater than $10 billion in market capitalization.  The 5-rated stocks are the following:

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is a gold producer with mining operations in Canada, Mexico and Finland, and exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America and the United States. Agnico Eagle operates through two broader segments. Northern Business include the LaRonde and Goldex mines and Canadian Malartic mine, all based in Quebec, as well as the Meadowbank and Meliadine mines in Nunavut and the Kittila mine in Lapland in northern Finland. Southern Business consists of the Pinos Altos mine and Creston Mascota satellite mine, both in Chihuahua in northern Mexico as well as La India mine in Sonora in northern Mexico. The company was founded in 1972 and headquartered in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Barrick Mining Corporation (B) is a leading global gold and copper producer, focusing on developing and operating long-life, Tier One assets in prolific mining regions across the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Barrick Mining Corporation was founded in 1983 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Alamos Gold Corporation (AGI) is a Canadian-based intermediate-sized gold producer with diversified production from three operating mines in North America. This includes the Young-Davidson mine in northern Ontario, Canada and the Mulatos and El Chanate mines in Sonora State, Mexico. It was founded in 2003 with headquarters in Toronto.

This table compares all eight companies’ stocks with more than $10 billion market cap.

Beyond the three profiled stocks being rated Strong Buy, all three have positive earnings growth with Alamos Gold (AGI) placing highest followed by Barrick Gold (B).  The latter has a more reasonable P/E ratio at 16.7, just more than half that of the SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY).  Barrick also has the second lowest 1-year price change, indicating that there is still room to run in terms of potential price gains relative to its peers.  Market cap leader Newmont Corp, in contrast, has the lowest P/E ratio but negative earnings growth.  It is still rated a buy but at this time, B merits further consideration and research given its overall competitiveness in all four categories. 

However, investing in just one or a handful of gold mining stocks even industry leaders such as Barrick and Agnico can be more risky than investing with an ETF that holds these stocks along with many other gold mining stocks.  ETFdb.com, the VettaFi ETF database, is our source for data on gold mining ETFs and gold bullion exchange-traded vehicles (ETVs).  There are 9 non-leveraged ETFs included in the database.  Most of them are rather small so we limited this analysis to the five largest. 

About these ETFs –

Van Eck Global Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - Tracks the overall performance of the largest and most liquid companies involved in the global gold mining industry. It is by far the largest and oldest of the gold mining ETFs and is well-diversified with 63 holdings.

Van Eck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) - Provides exposure to smaller-capitalization companies involved in gold and silver mining.   Because junior miners are smaller, earlier-stage companies, they often have a greater sensitivity to gold price movements, which means greater potential upside, but also higher volatility and risk compared to larger, more established companies.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) - Although XME includes the major gold stocks, it also represents the broader U.S. metals and mining industry, including companies in the steel, coal, and copper sub-industries.  It uses a modified equal-weighting methodology.  It has the lowest expense ratio of this group and is the only one to pay quarterly, not annual, dividends.  On the other hand, it also holds the fewest stocks, has the lowest dividend yield and the lowest correlation to the price of gold.

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) - Invests in a global index of companies primarily engaged in the business of gold mining. It has a lower expense ratio and higher returns across the board to its most direct competitor, GDX.

Sprott Gold Miners ETF  (SGDM) - Targets larger-sized gold companies, specifically those with stocks listed on Canadian and major U.S. exchanges.  It uses a "smart-beta" approach, with a rules-based methodology that emphasizes companies with strong revenue growth, free cash flow yield, and low debt-to-equity. In recent periods, the strategy has not outperformed the other major ETFs in this category.

This chart compares the data for these five mining company ETFs. SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPLG) is included for benchmarking purposes. As most of the underlying companies tend to go up and down with the price of gold albeit not every day, these ETFs tend to outperform when gold is outperforming stocks. All five have substantially  outperformed SPLG for the 1-month, year-to-date and three-year periods.  The S&P 500 Index outperformed 4 of the 5 ETFs  but underperformed XME.  As mentioned, XME holds stocks of precious metal mining companies in addition to industrial metals miners.  Accordingly, it will not track the price of gold as closely as the other four ETFs that have “gold” rather than “metals & mining."  2021 saw a post-pandemic sell-off in gold, explaining why the gold miners ETFs underperformed XME for the five-year period.  The demand for industrial metals rose in 2021 along with homebuilders and the need to attack supply chain issues.

GDX is more of a pure play on the stocks of gold mining companies.  It is also by far the most frequently traded of the five ETFs.   For those that are not frequent traders, iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETFs (RING) might be worth a look.  In every period examined on the table, RING outperformed GDX with a significantly lower expense ratio. Constraining expenses is an important component in wealth building.

How do ETFs holding portfolios of gold mining stocks differ from holding “gold ETFs?”  Let’s start with the basics. “Gold ETFs” are not Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) at all because there is no actual mutual fund involved.  They are actually exchange-traded trusts of an ilk known as “grantor trusts.”  This has tax implications as the IRS regards the grantor trust as a pass-through structure that is taxed as if the underlying security was being taxed.  Presently, the IRS classifies gold as a collectible which has a different tax schedule than capital gains from registered securities, Nevertheless, the term Gold ETF has garnered public acceptance because the creation and redemption mechanism that is used has become known as “the ETF wrapper.”  . This is wechnical hy the late Kathleen Moriarty, the original attorney who helped create SPDRs along with other proponents of accuracy for the sake of public educations prefer the term ETVs (Exchange-Traded Vehicles). Unfortunately, since the term “gold ETFs” is a misnomer that has become so widely used, we’ll use it with quotation marks in this article.  By definition, the investment objective, as printed in the prospectus, of a gold ETF is for the shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less expenses.

These are the five largest “Gold ETFs” in terms of Assets Under Management –

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is the largest and most widely held gold ETF in the world. Its prospectus specifies that shares must be backed by fully allocated gold bullion in vaults at all times. The trust's gold is fully allocated at the end of each business day. An allocated account means the trust owns specifically identified gold bars. It was the first U.S. “gold-backed ETF” and remains the standard for investors seeking direct exposure to the gold market. The trust's sole asset is physical gold bullion, stored in secure vaults in undisclosed locations.

iShares Gold Trust (IAU) - Like GLD, IAU is designed to track the spot price of gold by holding fully allocated  physical bullion in vaults located in New York, London.  Its expense ratio of 0.25% is much lower than the 0.40% charged by GLD.  In all other ways, IAU is a virtual replica.

SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) - The main differences between SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) are their share price and expense ratios, with GLDM offering a lower price per share and a significantly lower expense ratio as compared to GLD's 0.40% expense ratio.  The price-per-share was set proportionally lower to accommodate the perceived needs of retail investors. Otherwise, the specifications for the all identical. As with GLD, The trust's sole asset is physical gold bullion, stored in secure vaults in undisclosed locations. The expense ratio for the trust has continually been revised downward in order to remain the lowest price competitor. After launching at 0.20%, the expense ratio is now at 0.09% following the launch of IAUM by BlackRock. 

abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) - is backed by physical gold stored in vaults in Zurich, Switzerland, and London. It aims to provide a cost-effective and convenient way for investors to gain exposure to gold prices.  The trust prioritizes using gold that meets the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) "Responsible Gold Guidance."  This differentiation might have been made by ETF sponsor Aberdeen, a Scotland-based company, to implicitly imply to some investors that a higher standard of than the standards used by State Street and BlackRock to assure the trust is fully bullion-based.  At launch time, SGOL had the lowest fee among “Gold ETFs” of 0.17%.  GLDM had been trading at 0.10% entering 2025 but was lowered to 0.09% to regain at least a tie for lowest-cost gold bullion exposure. 

iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) - is designed by BlackRock to give investors exposure to the daily price movements of gold bullion at a minimal expense. Its expense ratio of just 0.09%, lowest at the time of its mid-2021 launch, is now tied with GLDM for the lowest among physically-backed gold ETFs. 

Here is the comparative table for analysis. 

Please note the effect on the returns from higher to lower fees.  IAUM has the highest return for all periods except the 5-year since it hasn’t been existence for a full five years yet.  This is directly attributable to the fact that IAUM was launched at the lowest fee.  The differential in annualized returns in the three year period is 43 basis points.  The translation of fee differential into return differential affects investment principal increasingly with the passage of time.  We’ve heard some experts claim that the lower trading volumes of GLDM and IAUM only fit for retail products.  Although 60% lower, a daily trading volume surpassing 4 million is enough to keep the spreads at a penny or two for almost all transactions.  We conclude that for a trade of less than a billion dollars or a duration less than three months, GLDM trades with enough liquidity to easily meet the needs of most institutional and virtually all retails investors. As we have pointed out in prior columns about SPLG and SPY, why should investors pay more for the same exposures?  As we have detailed, all of the top five ETFs are fully backed by goild buillion with expense ratios being the one key differentiator.

A key component of wealth management is managing costs. Therefore, we recommend that readers who have made the decision to buy new gold shares strongly consider purchasing GLDM in lieu of GLD after conducting their own due diligence. 

As to the larger question posed at the outset.  I cannot say whether it is too late to add gold exposure to the portfolio given the fact that it is trading at an all-time high.  Our analytics can only say that the nearly 100% of Gold Miners stocks being rated by our valuation model as “overvalued: yet most of the stocks are rated either Buy or Strong Buy.  Since our predictive models favor these stocks in the near term, that implies that the price of gold will increase to provide that impetus.  To be clear, since our proprietary models do not predict future commodity prices, ValuEngine can have no official opinion on the price of gold.  That said, the fact is that this entire century, gold had been trading well over its historical multiples without showing any signs of nearing asymptotic behavior.  Is it conceivable that gold can continue to crash through its historic multiples and make ever higher all-time highs for the foreseeable future even while US stock markets continue to rise? My answer would be yes as long as the fear-of-systemic-instability factor continues to be present.  Stay tuned.

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