Early 2026 Market Musings & Mixed Returns

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We’re just three trading days into 2026, and I gotta tell ya, I am having zero fun so far. Zilch! No one but me should care, but I’ve been all thumbs so far this year. The only “trade” that is working for me is my cache of silver and gold bullion, and the only reason I’ve been smart enough to hold on to that is because it’s too clumsy and inconvenient to get rid of it. Otherwise, I’ve been moping all year long.

I’m also potentially even more mopey since the /NQ is potentially configured for a breakout (since, ya know, it’s so cheap and all). Given this maelstrom, I have, over the course of the past week, plunged from 37 positions to only 18, and with only 60% exposure right now. Yuck.
 


For you, the main benefit of me hating the market is that I turned my attention to website development. There was a lot of enthusiasm for a trader’s diary here on Slope, so we’re already hard at work on making that a reality (you can’t access it yet; this is all just alpha stuff).
 


The Dow Industrial Average is approaching the big round number of 50,000, which is going to be an irresistible draw. We could well cross that finish line in a matter of days. Not to worry, though. The boys in Gainesville will just relabel all the charts to show the top is Here Right Now.

 


The Industrials will be aided by their compatriot the Transports, which have blasted to new lifetime highs.
 


The S&P 500 also went to new lifetime highs, apparently affirming the awesomeness of snatching up Presidents of other countries. Just think: there are about 200 other countries we could take over – – this bull market could keep going for decades!
 


As for the S&P 100, it remains just below its price gap.
 


Amidst all this bullishness, one interesting development is with the Utilities. In this instance, a very well-formed head and shoulders top is forming. I had utterly lost interest in $UTIL, but this pattern has my attention.
 


For the one or two folks lunatic enough to still be bearish equities, the tech stocks have a sliver of hope left by way of the price gap I’ve highlighted. If the Nasdaq Composite busts past that, forget about it.
 


The exact same words apply to the Nasdaq 100, whose own price gap I’ve likewise laid down.
 


As I said earlier, the only asset class where I’ve done well has been precious metals (although I’ll hasten to add that my utter fumble with PALL haunts me, and it appears that the plunge a few days ago was another opportunity to get in which I likewise missed). The gold sector is absolutely on fire, and I’ve got to say that the triple-digit rises we’ve seen in gold and silver shouldn’t be taken lightly. Something VERY big is happening under our feet, and I think it’ll be years before we all realize what on Earth it was.
 


In any case, my trading self-confidence right now is lower than the VIX, and I am therefore very cautiously positioned. Hey, 2026, how about throwing me a bone?


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