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Markets fairly tiptoed through the first trading day of the week. With most of the impact on economic and earnings realities awaiting us in the back-half of the week, it only makes sense the major indices would move a tad more cautiously today. There were no significant Q2 earnings report or economic reports out during the normal trading session. Even still, we see yet another new closing high for both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 — the 35th record close so far this year for the S&P.

That said, the trading needle did not budge much today. Only the small-cap Russell 2000 spent any time up more than +1% today, with only the Dow sliding into the red by the closing bell. The Dow finished -31 points, or -0.08%, while the S&P reached 5572 for the first time, +0.10% on the day. The Nasdaq finished at a clean 18,400 after gaining +47 points, +0.26%. The Russell still led the session, +0.65% as of the close.

Directly after the end of normal trading, we do see a new report released. Consumer Credit for May came in higher than expected — $11.35 billion versus a range of +$8.0-10.7 billion anticipated — following an upwardly revised $6.49 billion the prior month. This also marks the first upward surprise on Consumer Credit since January of this year. The $11.35 billion is also the highest point we’ve seen since $14.12 billion in February.

Tomorrow morning at 10 am ET, Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears on Capitol Hill. He will address the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in a hearing led by majority senators Sherrod Brown from Ohio and Jon Tester on Montana, among others, as well as minority senators — and potential Vice President candidates for Donald Trump — Tim Scott of South Carolina and J.D. Vance of Ohio. Powell will resume testimony on the Hill the following day in front of a House committee. It is strongly expected Powell will be asked lots of questions about when the Fed plans on lowering interest rates.

The next Fed meeting on interest rates comes on the final two days of this month. Should we see no change in monetary policy, as expected, it will amount to 12 straight months without having moved from its +5.25-5.50% range. The last time we had a Fed funds rate at +5.25% was 18 years ago, where it stayed from the summer of 2006 to September of the following year when signs of strain on financial markets stemming from a housing bubble about to burst dictated policies.

We have no pending economic downturns visible from here. The labor market is slowly pulling back from historic highs and inflation levels continue to trace slowly downward over an extended period of time. We don’t expect Jerome Powell to declare victory over inflation in his testimony this week before Congress, but the very fact that Powell and the Fed have felt it can be patient before making any moves tells market participants that the monetary policy body is comfortable with present developments.

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