SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral.

Our Gain since 1/1/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Our gain for 2023 came in at 28.12% and SPX gain for 2023 came in at 23.38. We made 8 SPX trades with one loss and 7 wins in 2023.

Last Thursday a high volume day was recorded and most high volume days are tested (noted on chart) and if tested on lighter volume would be a bullish sign. Last Thursday’s low came in near the 472 SPY range. If volume increases at the 472 level, then the market may trade back to the early January low near 466. The bottom window is the 10-day TRIN which stands at 1.23 and bullish. The Equity put/Call closed last Wednesday at 1.55 which suggests an intermediate-term low is forming (see page two). Trin closes have been above 1.30 five days in a row and today may mark six days in a row suggesting panic is present. 

We updated this chart from last Thursday; we said last Thursday, “The middle window above is the daily CBOE equity Put/Call ratio. Yesterday (January 10) this ratio closed at 1.55 and we circled in blue the times that level was reached in the past going back to 2004 which was four times. All four times came in a lower area that led at a minimum of a multi-week rally (most where multi-month or longer). This is a rare occurrence and sending a signal for a bullish rise coming soon. The bottom window is the 5-day average of the equity put/call ratio; readings above .80 are bullish” (current reading is .88). Don’t have it shown but the 10-day TRIN stands at 1.23; showing panic is in the market and panic only forms near lows.

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