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That was one strange day we just went through. Between the Trump/Musk war, the no-deal-for-Japan, and the BBB passing the Senate, there was a news avalanche that buffeted the market all over the place. The /RTY, sadly, went into full-blown squeeze mode. I dumped my IWM puts (7% loss) but re-entered just a simple short-sale on IWM at decently high prices. Still, we have got to break back below the green line for this to have a prayer.

The analog is near ruination at this point. Last time, the counter-trend push didn’t go nearly this far. In fact, it respected the Fib. This time, the /RTY seems to be wanting to play catch-up with the /ES.

Thus, we’ve got to get a failed bullish breakout for this to work. Historically, this week has been crazy-bullish, so that’s a tall order.

The /ES had a harder time of it, actually managing to close in the red by almost the minimal amount mathematically possible. It keeps trying to break above its former high but keeps failing.

And the /NQ, very oddly, was quite weak, falling a percentage point and closing well below its own prior lifetime high (red line).

At this point, the SPY is mushed precisely at its multi-decade midline. There are only ten trading hours left this week, but those will be very important ten hours!

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