Image Source: Unsplash

The chart of the SPX continues to look good, as the last few months have formed a bullish triangle price pattern, and the number of NYSE new 52-week lows have remained at reasonably harmless levels.
 

The chart of the RSP ETF, which is the SPX equal-weight, also continues to look good, and the five-day average of net new highs/lows has just barely turned negative.
 

Here is something of a surprise. Friday's market was mixed, with the technology ETF (XLK) showing weakness while the semiconductor ETF (SOXX) showed strength. I'm not making too much of this because Friday was the first trading session of 2026, and portfolio managers probably made a number of trades to reposition for the new year. Still, it is worth noting that, generally, this kind of out-of-sync trading is considered a negative.
 

Here is another notable out-of-sync trading pattern, with the NYSE looking quite bullish as it pushed to new highs, while the Nasdaq dipped below the moving average. This weakness in the Nasdaq could be more than just unusual new year trading behavior.

Treasury yields and rising commodity prices have people worried, and this could be hurting Nasdaq stocks, which generally have much weaker balance sheets than those on the NYSE. This chart does make me a bit cautious because it looks so unusual to me.
 

Here is a look at longer-term Treasury yields. In my opinion, these yields still have a way to go upwards before they are at anything resembling alarming levels. Perhaps Nasdaq investors wouldn't agree.
 

I have placed less emphasis on the short-term trend in my trading behavior recently, but the current trend does look to be pointed lower at the moment. When this PMO indicator is near the bottom of its range, it means that prices have pulled back, and it often offers a better short-term risk/reward for new purchases.
 

The summations also appear to be pointing lower at the moment, confirming the PMO indicator.
 

Although the PMO has been pointing lower, the NYSE 52-week highs and lows appear healthy, with the new highs exceeding new lows at reasonable levels.
 

Bottom line: I have about 15% cash available for new purchases when the time is right. I tend to own the leading stocks that have the best price charts, boasting strong relative strength, and maintaining excellent fundamentals.

Meanwhile, gold experienced a very sharp reversal off its highs last week, but its chart continues to look reasonably well to me.
 

Gold miners reversed lower along with gold, but its chart nonetheless looks better, with prices still above the October high. The gold miners may just need a little time to gather strength again.
 

For good measure, I've included a chart showing gold and gold miners side-by-side. Both have remained above their 21-day EMA. This view doesn't look too bad at all.
 

Here is one last look at the gold miners, just to show the momentum indicator turning lower. The next simple cross above in a few weeks could offer a buying opportunity.
 

The last chart for today is a look at the commodity ETF (DBC). It really doesn't look that intimidating at the moment, but it would be wise to keep an eye on this. The Fed just can't lower rates with rising commodity prices.
 

Outlook Summary

• The short-term trend is down for stock prices as of Dec. 31, 2025.
• The medium-term trend is neutral for Treasury bond prices.

More By This Author: