A Few Too Many Lows
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There was a three-day mini correction last week that brought the SPX market-cap-weighted index down to its uptrend line, and that is where it then found support and bounced upwards on Friday. There were a few too many new 52-week lows on Thursday, but the level fell back into a harmless range on Friday.
There was similar price action for the SPX equal-weighted ETF. Also, the five-day average of new highs/lows remains positive, although it does appear to be pointing lower. For now, it doesn't look too worrisome.
The market-leading technology ETFs continue to look good, which reflects well on the general market. I won't worry much about the broader market as long as these ETFs seem to be trading well.
The price of this junk bond ETF gapped down on Thursday, which was a bit concerning, but so far it has been finding support at the 21-day average. This continues to look bullish.
I've decided not to show my regular weekly charts that are used to follow the short-term trend of the market because they aren't helpful right now. Instead of following the short-term trend, I'm keeping my money in the top-quality, best-performing stocks while using the 21-day average as my stop-loss price level. At the moment, I am about 90% invested in stocks and ETFs, with the remaining percentage in cash.
Here is the indicator that tells me what the longer-term trend is, and it continues to point upwards rather nicely.
Oil and other energy-related commodities have been rising lately, and as a result, the commodity ETF is nearing the upper limit of a remarkable four-year trading range. If commodities rise too far and too fast, it will negatively impact stocks by pushing interest rates and yields higher.
I continue to like the look of this ETF. It is above its multi-year breakout point, and it is near a stop-price level that would mean minimal losses if triggered.
I continue to like this ETF as well, and it also remains just above its breakout level.
Outlook Summary
- The short-term trend is uncertain for stock prices
- The medium-term trend is neutral for Treasury bond prices
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Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. I am a private investor and blogger. The comments below reflect my view of the market and indicate what I am doing with my own accounts. The ...
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