Stocks had a rough week, finishing lower by nearly 2% on the S&P 500 and by more than 3% on the Qs. Still, that hasn’t dissuaded the bulls from dreaming of an end-of-year melt-up. First, there was seasonality on the bull’s side, and that seasonality was supposed to produce the melt-up. And with seasonality failing, there are now calls for a massive short-squeeze into the final weeks of the year.

When considering the driving factors of this potential short-squeeze, it seems far-fetched, in my opinion, and not likely to be the driving force needed to push for an end-of-year-melt-up. The Refinitiv Most Shorted Index looks pretty bad and is currently sitting at a massive level of support. If broken, it could lead to an enormous drop for the most-shorted names from around its current $187 to about $157, a decline of about 16%.

Additionally, some of the most beaten-up names in the Nasdaq, like Zoom (ZM), Roku (ROKU), PayPal (PYPL), and Twilio (TWLO), don’t even have significant short-interest levels. For example, these four stocks have less than 4% of their shares outstanding short, which is hardly enough to create a short-squeeze.

Avis Budget Group (CAR)

On top of the Russell 2000, AMC (AMC) and Avis are the two largest holdings, and they are not the two stocks anyone should take comfort in leading the small-cap sector higher. Since Avis erupted higher on Nov. 2, destroying the legacy of the Dow Jones Transport, the stock has been deflating and is likely to return to that $175 price it was trading before its 108% one-day rise.

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC)

Not only that, but the third-largest holding in the Russell, Lattice Semi, has broken its uptrend channel, and on heavy volume too. Meanwhile, its relative strength index is very much in a downtrend. This does not look bullish, and it has a date with support at $64.

Crocs (CROX)

On top of that, Crocs, the fourth-largest holding, has fallen out of an ascending megaphone pattern. It probably has a date about 10% lower, with a gap fill at $119.

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

Meanwhile, the IWM has fallen out of the same ascending megaphone pattern. Worse, it too, like CROX, may have a date about 10% lower with a gap-fill at $196 and a fall on strengthening volume.

Apple (AAPL)

The top components in the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100 don’t look all that much better. Apple has a similar rising megaphone pattern, which suggests the stock faces a short-term decline of about 11.3% to $150. On top of that, the uptrend in Apple’s RSI has broken.

NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ)

The Qs have a nearly identical pattern, with the ETF likely to fall through the uptrend at $374 and on its way back to $360, and with a gap-fill of its own. Additionally, we can see that the RSI has shifted trends from higher to lower.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

The S&P 500 ETF has the same pattern, with its next stop around $440.

Do not hold your breath if you are waiting for the end-of-year melt-up.