Image Source: Pixabay
 

Numerous articles cite an alleged breakthrough by Toyota that will be the kiss of death for the gasoline engine. Some of us are skeptical.

Image from Toyota video clip, third link below.

Hype or Reality?

• Yahoo News says Toyota’s newest breakthrough could be the ‘kiss of death’ for gas-powered cars — and could hit the market as early as 2027
• IT Wire says Toyota says new solid-state battery will have 1200km range, charge in 10 minutes
• A Toyota press announcement says Toyota Unveils New Technology That Will Change the Future of Cars

There are at least a dozen articles, all touting a 2027 delivery schedule. I also found a couple of far more believable articles.

Skepticism From CleanTechnica

CleanTechnica reports Toyota Claims Solid-State Battery Has 745 Mile Range, 10 Minute Charging Time

Hyperbole alert: The following news will evoke all the hackneyed words and phrases that so often are used to talk about new battery technology. Prepare for a flurry of “game changer,” “holy grail,” and “This changes everything” statements. Yet if the news today from Toyota is true — emphasis on if — the path of the EV revolution is about to be altered forever. The fact that it comes from Toyota, a company we have been lambasting for years because of its refusal to take electric cars seriously, makes this news all the more surprising.

Last month, Toyota announced it has a new electric car strategy. Around the CleanTechnica latte bar, the general consensus is that it’s about damn time.

Now just a few weeks later, Toyota is telling the world it has made a technological breakthrough that will allow it to cut the weight, size, and cost of batteries in half. Think for a minute. If true, what might the implications be for the EV revolution? And no, you are not allowed to include the words “game changer” in your response.

CleanTechnica readers, being the well-informed people they are, are aware that the leap from the laboratory to commercial production is often long and difficult. If Toyota has made progress in that area, that is indeed something to be celebrated. But once again, we have to emphasize, that is a big “if.”

David Bailey, a professor of business economics at the University of Birmingham, told The Guardian that if Toyota’s claims are accurate, it could be a landmark moment for the future of electric cars. “Often there are breakthroughs at the prototype stage but then scaling it up is difficult. If it is a genuine breakthrough it could be a game changer — very much the holy grail of battery vehicles.” Congratulations to Bailey for using two of the three most trite phrases about new technology in one sentence.

Despite this most recent announcement, Toyota is still committing substantial resources to developing hydrogen fuel cell technology. The company said last month it will establish a Hydrogen Factory to develop fuel cell technology further, particularly for commercial customers. Mercedes announced recently that it is building electric buses that have onboard fuel cell range extenders supplied by Toyota. The company says the focus of its hydrogen efforts will be markets in Japan, China, and Europe.

Until Toyota begins to share some details about its new solid-state battery technology, its announcements must be taken with the proverbial grain of salt. Will it change course and become a leader of the EV revolution? “We’ll see,” said the Zen master.

Semi-Solid-State Batteries Will Precede Solid-State Ones

AutoEvolution is also skeptical. It says Semi-Solid-State Batteries Will Precede Solid-State Ones, Here’s Why You Should Care

People don’t really care what’s under the bonnet, but they care if the car is expensive to run, or if it can get them from point A to point B with no hassles, or if the interior space is more than enough no matter how long or short the next trip might be. For most drivers out there, the technology propelling the car is of no importance as long they can travel those 400-500 miles between refueling/recharging and don’t have to wait too long to refill/recharge the tank/battery.

Well, this is the super batteries promise: to match conventional cars’ benefits in terms of range and refueling convenience. At some point, they will probably deal with the price discrepancy also. But for now, let’s agree not to call them “super” because it’s an embarrassing marketing trick and creates high expectations. How about “solid-state”, because it sounds technical but not complicated, it’s easy to remember, and it’s got two “s” from “super”, right?

For those of you who were dormant in the past decade or so, the usual lithium-ion battery basically consists of two electrodes separated by a liquid electrolyte allowing electrons to pass through it, thus creating energy for the electric motor to propel the EV. A solid-state battery’s main difference is replacing the liquid electrolyte with a solid one. And just like magic, you’ve got double the range and charging times ten times shorter.

Of course, things are much, much more complicated than that. But this is the next big step in battery tech. Unfortunately, as I explained at the beginning of 2023, solid-state batteries are not around the corner. The industry’s realistic expectations are to deploy large-scale commercially viable technology around the end of this decade.

Well, ladies and gents, in June, the not-too-long-ago anti-EV Toyota jumped on the EV bandwagon with a very bold EV strategy, stating it will soon bring 600 miles-range battery electric cars to the market. 

Then, at the beginning of July, the same Toyota made some waves stating that the company is working hard on a solid-state battery capable of up to 745 miles (1,200 km) range and only 10 minutes charging time. This battery should go into production starting in 2027.

I’m sorry for my reluctance. It’s hard to believe it’s only a coincidence that Toyota just came upon a battery breakthrough in the midst of a focus shift forced by shareholders. I want this to be true, but I also know that solid-state battery promises hit major problems, like dendrites formation. More, solid-state technology evolution didn’t occur overnight. It required a very long time, many experiments, and a lot of money.

In April, at Auto Shanghai 2023, Chinese CATL, the biggest battery manufacturer in the world, announced its proprietary “condensed battery”, with an impressive energy density of up to 500 Wh/kg. While it’s marketed as a solid-state battery, it actually uses a polymer gel-like electrolyte. So, this is another semi-solid-state battery, and CATL intends to mass-produce it starting sometime at the end of this year.

NIO is a Chinese EV manufacturer known for its swap-battery station network. It looks like it’s ready to offer its customers a new solid-state battery option starting this summer. The 150 kWh battery pack is supplied by its partner WeLion and promises up to 40% more energy density than the current 100 kWh Li-ion battery. Of course, NIO “forgot” to mention that this is a semi-solid-state battery with a hybrid electrolyte.

“Solid-state” syntagm creates high expectations in the mind of consumers and investors. But semi-solid-state technology is just an improvement of current battery technology. A pretty big improvement, I might say, but definitely not a game-changing one.

I always say the devil is in the details. Not using the “semi” term may seem like a harmless detail. But not living up to customer expectations – when the industry emphasizes the big advantages of solid-state batteries over conventional ones – it seems like a very bad marketing plan. Or simply dumb ignorance.

Please note that Toyota is so convinced of its solid state technology that it continuing research in hybrids, fuel cells, plug-in hybrids, regular batteries, and semi-solid state batteries.

Well, not to worry, I am sure fusion is just around the corner too.

Concern Over Mars

This is getting serious. Am I the only one concerned about climate change on Mars?!

I demand action. When are we going to do something about this? https://t.co/B9GS8uT0fB

— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) July 11, 2023

The Green Deal in the EU Goes Unfunded, Expect a Total Collapse

Meanwhile, please note The Green Deal in the EU Goes Unfunded, Expect a Total Collapse

More By This Author: