Here is the final snapshot of the yield curve and spreads ahead of the first interest rate cut since 2008.

The Fed will cut rates in a few minutes. This is what the yield curve looked like ahead of the announcement.

Yield Curve 2019-07-31 Pre-FOMC Announcement

The yield curve, especially counting the Fed Funds Rate at 2.40% is massively inverted. The 3-month is inverted out to 10 years, but now just barely.

I will do a comparison later today of the changes.

Yield Curve Screaming for Cuts

"The yield curve is telling us that interest rates are prohibitively high such that they will slow economic growth…not so much the level, but the persistence. The reason for a 50 basis pt. cut is to un-invert the yield curve"@QuillIntel @TheBondBuyer — https://t.co/0PLZqKcsMQ

— Danielle DiMartino (@DiMartinoBooth) July 31, 2019

There is currently no economic basis for a rate cut. Jim Bianco at Bianco research says the yield curve alone is reason enough.

Certainly, the yield curve is screaming for cuts along with President Trump who says Bigger is Better: A "Small Cut" Won't Do.

How to interpret what the Fed does this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/ItJ7xADbKF

— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) July 31, 2019

My Reply to Bianco 

Unclear if rates on the long end will rise in your scenario.
But we are unlikely to find out. 25 BP cut most likely. https://t.co/4K0AXCM6OB

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) July 31, 2019

If the goal is to un-invert the curve I rather doubt even 50 basis points would do.

But why should that be the goal?

The yield inverted yield curve is a symptom, not the problem. I propose a recession is coming no matter what the Fed does.

The bubbles are too many and the economic distortions to great for economic policy to fix the problems.

It is impossible to un-blow bubbles.