Weekly Review: Investors Focus On Politics, Trade, And Central Bank Meetings

This week, the focus among investors was on the ongoing trade talks, political issues, central bank minutes, and a couple of economic data.


In the United States, it was widely reported that special counsel Robert Mueller was in the final stages of his investigation of the Trump campaign and his decision to fire James Comey. Mueller has been investigating the campaign for almost two years. After he is done with the investigation, he will submit the report to the Attorney General, who will then submit it to congress. The investigation will come to an end, even though the counsel has not interviewed key people such as Donald Trump, Trump Jr, and Jared Kushner. Therefore, it is impossible to predict what will be in the report. However, a report that indicts or one that provides a path to impeachment will be a negative for the market at a time when the country is having trade negotiations.

Trade Talks

This week, the trade talks between the US and China continued. Yesterday, Chinese officials led by Liu He, held meetings with their American counterparts with the goal of coming up with a deal that will please the US and China. In the US, there are concerns that Trump will cave in and accept a deal that does not have any meaningful reforms. Xi Jinping is also under pressure in China not to give the US everything it wants. This week’s meetings are the last ones before the March 1 deadline.

Central Bank Minutes

This week, a number of central banks released the minutes of their past monetary policy meetings. The Reserve Bank of Australia was the first one to release these minutes. They showed that the country was facing increasing risks such as the falling house prices, low inflation, and prolonged drought. The Federal Reserve released its minutes on Wednesday. The minutes showed that the Fed’s officials were prepared to end the unwinding of the balance sheet this year. This is important because the balance sheet has ballooned from under $1 trillion to more than $4 trillion. This was followed by the ECB minutes, which showed that the officials had reduced their worry about the economic outlook. This is despite the fact that recent data from Europe present a bleak future for the union.

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